Trevor Manuel’s first Budget confounded his critics and pleased the markets, reports Madeleine Wackernagel
THE South African Chamber of Business (Sacob) has long called for a champion to lead the government’s growth, employment and redistribution (Gear) strategy. On Wednesday, it looked like one had been found.
Minister of Finance, Trevor Manuel dubbed his first Budget the “transformation” Budget, which sets out to deliver a “better life for all”. A tall order, but judging by the market reaction, not unattainable.
“Manuel has managed to walk the fiscal tightrope and not lose his balance,” said one economist. “He’s done a pretty good job considering the constraints he faces,” said another.
There were complaints, of course. Sacob was keen on some measures to boost savings and to correct the imbalance between direct and indirect taxation. Instead, we got some adjustment for bracket creep in the lower income groups but value-added tax (VAT) remains unchanged.
Indeed, some economists raised the point that now would have been the best time to lift the VAT rate: “The political acceptability of a VAT hike lessens the closer we get to 1999,” said Abri Meiring of Old Mutual. “It makes more sense to help the poor through expenditure than through income tax measures. As long as some compensation is introduced, in the form of food stamps, for example, VAT is the most productive form of tax.”
Another bugbear was privatisation. Says Sacob: “Business … would argue that in addition to the state-owned enterprises themselves, numerous activities of the public sector can be examined in order to determine whether they can be more effectively undertaken by the private sector.”
Nevertheless, Manuel went a long way in silencing most of his potential critics with the “philosophical shift”, as he called it, on exchange controls. Essentially what we have now is a free exchange control regime with a few exceptions, against a regulated system with no exceptions, he said.
And, depending on how this move goes, it won’t be long before total freedom reigns. “We’re in the second half of the race now,” said Dr Chris Stals, governor of the Reserve Bank. “When we get to the last lap we can run much faster.”
But while welcomed in principle, the lack of detail raised concerns. Dennis Dykes, chief economist of Nedcor, said uncertainty about what the limits would be when finally decided on in June could lead to unnecessary volatility in the currency markets.
Corporations will be subject to prudential requirements, in line with practice overseas. In Britain, for example, pension funds are only allowed to invest 10% of their assets outside the country. But only individual taxpayers of “good standing” will be allowed to take advantage of the new measures – another sideswipe at the non-payers.
Nobody expects a massive capital flight to ensue after July 1, however. The limit for individual foreign currency transactions is likely to be in line with the new R80 000 travel allowance. And the limits will be re-evaluated as circumstances demand and reserves permit, said Manuel. First off, the administrative issues have to be dealt with.
It was what the market wanted – a clear signal that South Africa is well on its way to becoming a fully-fledged member of the global economy.
But this Budget was not just about lifting exchange controls. Manuel pounded home his message of stopping the “non-payment rot” time and again. “Our ability to [ensure equity and fairness in the tax system] is severely hampered by the culture of non- payment and evasion that has come to characterise our tax system. Non-payers and tax-evaders … stand in the way of significant tax reform and relief.
“The government will more vigorously enforce the tax legislation,” he said. “We will actively pursue anyone who breaks the law.”
And with the latest figures from the tax amnesty showing a disappointing R900- million received, albeit with VAT figures yet to come, Manuel will have to do all in his power to make sure his Budget balances.