South Africa’s search for a foreign-policy triumph goes on. After the humiliations of Nigeria and the frustrations of Angola, expectations have risen once again with the arrival of Laurent Kabila in Cape Town. Are we about to establish ourselves as the peace- makers of Africa at last?
Peace is, of course, “a good thing”. But it is not desirable in all circumstances. And there is a paradoxical danger that, by succeeding in bringing about an end to the conflict in Zaire, our government will be doing a disservice to that country and to Africa as a whole.
A ceasefire at this stage, for example, could well prolong the rule of President Mobutu Sese Seko. And early elections – which would no doubt be central to a ceasefire agreement – could prove far more destructive in the long term than the present conflict. This is particularly true if the country goes to the polls without a federal Constitution in place to defuse secessionist tendencies in the centre and south of the country.
The first priority for South African foreign policy where Zaire is concerned should be to persuade Mobutu to agree to a quick and peaceful transfer of power. Mobutu is essentially a nihilist. He has maintained his rule through chaos. He is seemingly dying from cancer. The temptation will be for him to take a destructive farewell.
France – which has already prepared Mobutu’s bolt-hole – must be persuaded to use its influence in a positive way. Other avenues of leverage need to be explored, such as the sequestration of the huge fortune he is said to have squirrelled away abroad.
The second priority is to persuade opposition politicians, including Kabila, as to the need for a broad-based government to take over the country. The “opposition” politicians in Kinshasa are almost as discredited as Mobutu himself. The rebels must be persuaded that their time will come and urged to model their approach to power on that of the African National Congress.
The ANC’s experience of South Africa’s transition gives our government a wealth of experience on which to draw. A foreign-affairs triumph is there for the making in Zaire. But we must needs tread delicately.