As the peace process drags on, the overthrow of Mobutu has handed the government in Luanda an opportunity to move in on Unita’s rich diamond fields, writes Barnaby Phillips from Luanda
A FORTNIGHT of fighting in Angola’s diamond-rich, north-eastern province of Lunda Norte has raised renewed doubts about the stability of the peace-keeping process – just two months before United Nations peacekeeping troops are due to complete their withdrawal.
The Angolan armed forces (FAA), using the town of Dundo as a base, have pushed into territory held by the former rebel Unita movement. Although the UN has been denied access to the area, about 2 500 people have fled into government-held towns, and local residents report mortar and Katyusha rocket fire.
There are also reports of dead and wounded FAA soldiers being brought back to Dundo. “This is the worst fighting since the 1994 Lusaka peace accord,” says one diplomat in the capital Luanda.
Unita has complained to the UN about what it describes as government aggression, and a Unita representative in Luanda has warned that the former rebels “will take appropriate measures if the offensive continues”.
But despite much bluster, Unita has decided to live with its losses around Dundo, knowing that in its present weakened condition it can scarcely risk a return to all-out conflict.
The diamond reserves of Lunda Norte are an essential source of income to Unita, worth an estimated $500-million a year.
But while diamond experts say that the recent fighting may have cost Unita between 10 to 15% of that total, the richest mining areas remain firmly under the movement’s control. These areas are in the Cuango valley, further to the west, where Unita claims there has been a build-up of FAA military strength in recent weeks.
Government officials deny a decision has been taken to remove forcibly Unita from the areas it controls. They claim instead that the operation is designed to secure the northern border with the Democratic Republic of Congo, snaring troops loyal to ousted Mobuto Seke Seko who are trying to flee the forces of Laurent Kabila.
But the fighting around Dundo reflects the government’s increasing lack of tolerance with what it perceives as foot-dragging by the Unita leader, Jonas Savimbi.
At the root of this impatience is the fact that Unita still controls about 70% of Angolan territory. At the beginning of April, Unita accepted a junior role in a power-sharing Government of Unity and National Reconciliation, still dominated by the ruling MPLA party, but there has been little progress since then.
But events in Congo confirm Unita’s growing international isolation, and may now encourage the government to take a more bellicose attitude.
Ten years ago Unita had important friends in Washington, Pretoria and Kinshasa; now it is distinctly unpopular in all three of those capitals. “With the fall of President Mobutu, Unita have lost their last important foreign friend,” says Angola’s Deputy Foreign Minister Jorge Chikoti.
Mobutu was indeed a vital ally to Savimbi, allowing him to send out diamonds through Zaire, while bringing in weapons and fuel, in clear violation of UN sanctions. In contrast, Kabila is a close ally of the Angolan government, which provided support to him during the Zairean civil war.
With the assistance of Lebanese traders, Unita will doubtless continue exporting diamonds from its airfields across Angola, but the scale of the trade is likely to be severely curtailed.
Meanwhile, speculation is growing of a split between Unita moderates who have already arrived in Luanda, and those hardline generals who remain with Savimbi in his central highlands headquarters of Bailundo.
“Those who are in Luanda are seeing they can work with their MPLA counterparts and the idea of returning to the bush becomes less and less attractive,” says one diplomat.
The differences of opinion within Unita were graphically illustrated in an ugly incident last week in the central province of Kwanza Sul, when a gang of Unita supporters beat up and nearly killed a leading Unita moderate, Isaias Samakuva. He says he believes the attack was carried out by local hotheads, but his interpretation sits oddly with Unita’s reputation for discipline and centralised decision-making.
UN and Western diplomats are now urging Savimbi finally to embrace the peace process, and move to Luanda. Until now, he has refused to do so, arguing that his personal safety cannot be guaranteed.
But these are critical times for the man who launched Unita back in 1966. “If he comes to Luanda, he plays his last card, but if he stays in Bailundo, he risks seeing his authority gradually being eroded,” says one government minister.