Madeleine Wackernagel
THE clever mining houses have been doing it for some time – going north, that is, in search of more golden pastures.
Pre-1994, South Africans were not always welcome visitors, or investors. That is all set to change as the mining crisis at home drives ever-more local companies into the rest of Africa, particularly Ghana, in a bid to prop up profits and boost production.
South Africa’s gold-mining industry has for some time been well-aware of its limited lifespan. The doomsayers were predicting disaster more than 10 years ago with the last severe gold-price slump, but this time the omens are less easily ignored.
Local gold is prohibitively expensive to produce, especially at bullion price levels of $320/oz and heading lower, and resources are running dry.
Africa has a long mining history, but investment in exploration and development outside Southern Africa has stagnated for much of the past 30 years. Inward-looking economic policies, political problems and lack of financial resources deterred many potential investors, both within Africa and from abroad.
But with many governments revising their mining laws in the late-1980s and technological advances cutting exploration costs, West Africa in particular became attractive to foreign investors, with Ghana leading the way. In 1986, new mining laws were introduced, allowing for flexible royalties, tax allowances, exemptions on import duties and retention of foreign exchange.
Says one analyst: “The law has been used as a model for other African countries that are seeking to rejuvenate their mining industries, because it is seen as very fair to all parties concerned.”
Lest anybody think this signals the start of a second “scramble for Africa”, the foreign companies, in the main, are mindful of the need for value-added investment – in terms of skills and technology transfers – and partnerships with indigenous capital.
Much of Africa’s mineral potential is going untapped because the initial capital expenditure (capex) is prohibitive to all but the most determined investor. Anglo American Corporation, for example, spent more than $300-million on developing the necessary infrastructure at its Sadiola mine in Mali; this ratio of capex to output is almost twice that in coastal West Africa.
Tanzania is rich in gold, but its infrastructure is poor. A Canadian company, Sutton, is sitting on a potential five million ounces of very high-grade gold at Bulyanhulu; the latest slump in the gold price no doubt will delay any development.
“Tanzania is a veritable gold mine,” says an analyst. “But it needs someone big to come in and take the lead in making that commitment to developing the infrastructure; the government hasn’t got the money to build roads and pump water to the region.”
In those areas where the infrastructure is in place, however, the pickings can be rich although production costs vary from mine to mine. Randgold Resources operates the highest-cost producer, Syama, at more than $300/oz, although it believes significant reductions are possible.
Tarkwa, Gold Fields’ mine in Ghana and the second-biggest gold producer in Africa outside South Africa, with a potential 13- million ounces, is set to pour gold from January 1998. The company is predicting an average cost over five years of $210/oz, after an initial capex of $125-million to develop the surface mine.
But by far the biggest operator in the rest of Africa is Ashanti, which this year celebrates 100 years of continuous production. Since its re-listing on the London Stock Exchange in May 1994, Ashanti has embarked on an aggressive expansion drive, which is already bearing fruit, quickly turning it from a single-mine gold producer into a major mining house, with assets all over the continent. The group’s largest mine, Obuasi, is the biggest in West Africa, with an output of 850k oz – compared with Tarkwa’s 300k oz and Syama’s 220k oz. Ashanti’s exploration portfolio is also impressive, boasting more than 30 000km2 of properties, located in 10 African countries.
Gencor is still the biggest South African operator in West Africa, with 22 projects in Ghana, C’te D’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. Its recent deal with a Canadian company, Eldorado, revealed that Gencor is sitting on what could be the most important modern discovery in West Africa – the Yamfo trend, a potentially enormous seam.
What also became clear was that Gencor did not develop these projects overnight, but had been working on its West African expansion long before 1994.
And therein lies the rub. The temptation now must be for a rush northwards and eastwards as prospects for South African mining worsen; the potential is there, certainly, but investors have to be in it for the long term. Looking elsewhere in Africa is no quick fix for the problems facing South Africa’s mining giants today.