Mungo Soggot
The government has snapped into action=20 over the potentially disastrous drought=20 effects on the economy of El Ni=A4o.
Several government departments are=20 contributing to a Cabinet memorandum on the=20 climatic phenomenon in an initiative driven=20 by Constitutional Affairs Minister Valli=20 Moosa, who chairs a Cabinet committee to=20 handle disasters. According to the Director=20 General of the Department of Agriculture,=20 Bongiwe Njobe-Nbuli, Moosa will be steering=20 a team of the relevant departments, which=20 even includes public enterprises. She said=20 the memorandum would probably be presented=20 to Cabinet next Wednesday. But she declined=20 to indicate what recommendations would be=20 made.
Economists say that thanks to the climatic=20 phenomenon the likelihood of below normal=20 rainfall over the 1997/98 rainy season is=20 now more than 50%. They add that the=20 agriculture sector could also be badly hit=20 in the following years of the drought=20 cycle.
Economists are warning that heavy=20 agricultural imports could take a bite of=20 at least R1-billion out of the balance of=20 payments. SBC Warburg says that in a worst- case scenario, maize production could fall=20 to 3,5-million tons, a drop of 50% on=20 1996/97 estimates. That translates into a=20 potential 0,8% decline in gross domestic=20 product for next year.=20