A mega-project to transform the city
Will winning the bid transform or destroy=20 Cape Town? That is the burning question as=20 the city awaits the announcement on=20 September 5
John Young
Supporters of Cape Town’s Olympic Bid say=20 the city will be unrecognisable in 2004 if=20 it hosts the games. They insist there will=20 be plenty of time to build the hotels and=20 transport links, stadiums and practice=20 venues needed to host the greatest show on=20 earth.
To get an idea of how much can be achieved=20 in seven years, it’s worth looking at how=20 much Cape Town has changed since 1990.
The Victoria and Alfred Waterfront has=20 grown from a gleam in the eye of ambitious=20 developers to a defining symbol of Cape=20 Town, the property market has taken off,=20 high-income earners are living in a=20 revitalised CBD, shopping centres have=20 expanded massively, the Yellow Pages=20 directory has grown by 34% and the poorest=20 part of the metropole, the south-east=20 (including Khayelitsha), has become home to=20 over a third of the population.
But perhaps the most important change has=20 been in the attitude of Capetonians.
Business is confident, occupancy rates are=20 at an all-time high, the city has an=20 exciting international feel and business=20 parks are springing up all over. Economists=20 and planners agree that privatisation and=20 internationalisation have been the main=20 factors behind the change.=20
“The change in the last five to seven years=20 has been dramatic,” says the Tourism=20 Business Council’s Hugh von Zahn. Last year=20 some=20
R3,5-billion was injected into the economy=20 from tourism, while the region’s staple -=20 agriculture – netted R4-billion.=20
In 1993, 346 000 overseas tourists visited=20 Cape Town, and that has been rising every=20 year: for example 1996 was 28% up on the=20 previous year. Over 800 000 foreign=20 visitors are expected in 1997.
In response, 39 hotels are going up in=20 greater Cape Town. Another indicator of the=20 boom is the number of restaurants – about 1=20 500, according to Von Zahn. As Cape Town=20 tourism marketing manager Jeremy Harris=20 says: “We are not even at the million mark=20 yet, but we have to have the hotels to=20 attract the tourists.”=20
The inner city’s renaissance really started=20 in the early Eighties. Peter de Tolly, who=20 was involved in the city council’s moves to=20 revitalise the city centre and is now the=20 Olympic bid company’s director of=20 environment and planning, says that=20 Greening the City, the pedestrian network=20 (including St George’s Mall) and=20 conservation control, “completely changed=20 the perception of central Cape Town. It=20 became the place to go to and be seen in.”=20
Now the CBD has loft developments sprouting=20 off the top of blocks old and new. Vacancy=20 rates in A-grade buildings were over 10% in=20 1993 and are now 2%. Western Cape growth=20 rates average 1% better than the national=20 average and the Cape index on the JSE has=20 consistently been the top performer since=20 1995.
The strength of the Western Cape economy is=20 diversity. “In the absence of heavy=20 industry, it is a small and medium=20 enterprise-led region,” says Wolfgang=20 Thomas, Wesgro’s general manager, economic=20 development. “Cape Town is not a city where=20 a single major project shapes change. The=20 exception is the Waterfront.”=20
One man who believes the city has not=20 changed is Cape Town’s development=20 director, Rod Young: “What have the growth=20 of Tygerberg and the growth of the=20 Waterfront done for the average guy sitting=20 out at Guguletu?” he asks. “The fundamental=20 structure of the city has not changed.”
The main apartheid problems are still in=20 place: poverty, bad public transport and=20 lack of housing. Since 1990, crime has=20 escalated and tens of thousands of jobs=20 have been lost in the textile industry. But=20 a crucial difference is that a plan is in=20 place to solve these problems.
Planning for the Olympic bid has plugged=20 into a scheme for greater Cape Town which=20 aims to integrate the poorer south-east=20 with the richer west and north – the=20 Metropolitan Spatial Development Framework=20 (MSDF). Planning started in 1991 and it was=20 published in 1996.=20
Priority projects of the Olympic bid are=20 being built in Khayelitsha, Belhar and=20 Philippi in terms of the MSDF. A black=20 empowerment project has seen 54% of tenders=20 for R36-million in work go the way of black=20 business.
De Tolly points to the R86-million for=20 facilities and R250-million for transport=20 earmarked as priority spending as tangible=20 evidence of the impact of the bidding=20 process on helping to shape a new Cape=20 Town. “This is development you would not=20 have seen otherwise,” he says.
If Cape Town is to change beyond what Young=20 calls the “largely cosmetic”, then it needs=20 a mega-project over the next seven years.=20 If Cape Town wins the Olympic Games, will=20 that allow the planning of the last seven=20 years to come to fruition and genuinely=20 reshape the city?
“The Games can help immeasurably,” says=20 Young. He believes that “if we are to solve=20 the transport problems, then the only hope=20 is the Olympics”. But a note of caution is=20 sounded by town planner Jens Kuhn of the=20 Cape Metropolitan Council, who believes=20 that “public transport in Cape Town is=20 likely to get worse”. Winning the Games=20 would be “very, very good” but a=20 precondition for success would be for=20 central government to keep its promises.=20
According to Kuhn, R470-million was pledged=20 for transport in 1994, and was reduced to=20 R250-million, of which about R15-million=20 has so far been released by central=20 government.
De Tolly believes that the Olympic bid has=20 filled the gap. “Cape Town 2004 is a=20 surrogate vision,” he says. “It is entirely=20 tangible and practical. It says we want to=20 put Cape Town on the global map. There is=20 no organisation that plays the role that=20 the bid company plays. It is a partnership=20 between authorities, the private sector and=20 the public sector. It may not be a perfect=20 partnership, but it is the only one=20 around.”
The Olympic Games would be the sort of=20 mega-project that could transform Cape Town=20 – properly.=20
It seems Cape Town has not got all its eggs=20 in the Olympic basket. Young is confident=20 that a convention centre will bring R1- billion of “new spend”. The R3,5-billion=20 Capricorn Science and Research project is=20 on course and should create 15 000 jobs,=20 the R2-billion Saldanha Steel works will=20 make a major impact on the regional=20 economy, AECI are investing heavily at=20 their Strand site, Century City is building=20 and the Planet Hollywood restaurant is=20 going ahead at a cost of R17-million.=20
The tourist industry will keep growing,=20 Olympics or no Olympics.
Cape Town is a more confident place. It=20 hosted the World Fencing Championship in a=20 hall built at lightning speed. The=20 Bellville Cycling Velodrome and the=20 Hartleyvale Astroturf are world-class=20 facilities. “If we don’t get the bid,” says=20 Harris, “we can host other sporting events.=20 Sport is an enormous industry.”
Thomas is looking forward to September 5.=20 “If we get the Games, then you sit with=20 deadlines and this is what you need.” But=20 he believes that not getting the Games=20 could also have a positive side effect if=20 Capetonians are shocked into asking=20 themselves how to make the city a great=20 centre – for technology, conferences,=20 education or sport.
– John Young is a freelance writer and=20 director of an adult learning centre in=20 Cape Town
If Cape Town wins, run for cover …
Pieter de Lange
In Olympic terms an African Games is=20 certainly the missing link and therefore=20 the first African Games could expect=20 widespread and enthusiastic support. But=20 what would be so unique about it?=20
After all, South America has never hosted=20 the Olympics, although Buenos Aires entered=20 the bidding stakes in 1936, 1956 and 1968=20 and has yet to succeed.
An African Games would be unique simply=20 because the continent that is very likely=20 the cradle of the human race has become the=20 have-not continent in socio-economic terms.=20
Africa’s failure in food production, which=20 declined by 11,6% per person since 1960, is=20 one tragic example. In contrast, Latin=20 America’s food production for the same=20 period (1961-1995) grew by 31,4% per=20 person, while Asia’s expanded by 70,6% per=20 person, according to Jeffrey Sachs,=20 director of the Harvard Institute for=20 International Development.
The Economist conveyed a sombre message in=20 a comprehensive report on sub-Saharan=20 Africa in 1994: “To grasp the scale of=20 Africa’s poverty, consider this statistic:=20 the combined gross national product of the=20 entire continent south of the Sahara is=20 less than that of Holland.”=20
Amidst all the recent atrocities and=20 seemingly mindless power struggles in the=20 Great Lakes area, there are also promising=20 developments and enough evidence of an=20 economic revival in Southern Africa to=20 prompt The Economist to do “An African=20 Success Story” in 1997.=20
But it is clear that the world would be=20 critical of a wasteful first African Games,=20 and it is obvious that huge white-elephant=20 sports structures will not be tolerated. In=20 short, will a Cape Town Olympics support=20 the long expected and much hoped for=20 African renaissance?
Because Africa is so under-developed in=20 economic terms, any credible Olympic bid=20 would have to demonstrate serious and=20 realistic developmental intentions, both=20 human and physical. Unfortunately Cape=20 Town’s strategic approach has been confused=20 and contradictory to say the least.=20
On the one hand there is the commitment to=20 a “lean and light Games”, so as not to=20 alarm the taxpayers; on the other hand=20 there is the emphasis on human development=20 which is quantified in terms of the=20 expected number of jobs to be created by=20 the 2004 Olympics.
But these two basic philosophies are=20 contradictory and incompatible. Cape Town’s=20 emphasis is understandably on human=20 development, but because the city is so=20 under-developed in terms of the=20 infrastructure required for an Olympic=20 Games, there would have to be huge and=20 expensive developments of the physical kind=20 as well.
Expensive infrastructure cannot be erected=20 just to comply with International Olympic=20 Commitee (IOC)requirements because the=20 Olympics is a one-time event and not a=20 primary source of demand. The lean and=20 light philosophy does not extend to the=20 salary of the chief executive, Chris Ball,=20 which was reported to be about=20 R1-million per year, prompting Councillor=20 Arthur Wienberg to demand full disclosure -=20 without success.
With crippling and widespread unemployment=20 the issue of the likely number of jobs=20 created by the Games is an intense and=20 emotional one. When the Cabinet gave the=20 green light to South Africa’s Olympic=20 effort on June 6 1996, the potential for=20 job creation was obviously a major plus=20 point.=20
The 90 000 to 110 000 permanent or=20 sustainable jobs promised by the bid=20 company and the government became a=20 constant phrase which the proponents of the=20 bid used to impress the gullible or=20 convince the undecided. But in the bid=20 books to the IOC the figure all of a sudden=20 became a mere 90 000 person years.
This term is obviously open to varying=20 interpretations but a study done by KPMG=20 Consulting UK for Manchester’s bid for the=20 2000 Games clearly adopted the=20 “conventional assumption that 10 person=20 years of employment is equivalent to a=20 full-time job”.=20
When this principle is applied, the Cape=20 Town bid company can be accused of=20 exaggerating the potential for job creation=20 tenfold and of misleading the Cabinet.=20
The hard-sell approach can be construed as=20 extremely cynical in view of the fact that=20 many thousands of desperate people will=20 probably flock to Cape Town in the hope of=20 sharing in these often promised job=20 opportunities should the city be awarded=20 the Games. This happened in Atlanta to such=20 an extent that soup kitchens had to be=20 established.
To build a R350-million stadium in a city=20 where the existing stadium is not even=20 properly utilised seems absurd. Cape Town=20 was not included in the African Nations Cup=20 because of poor regular support for soccer=20 matches.=20
The R110-million controversial Olympic=20 rowing and canoeing course (both the IOC=20 report and the Olympic sub-committee of the=20 Cape Town municipality expressed serious=20 reservations about the site) and the R117- million aquatic centre are two of the more=20 exotic dishes on an Olympic menu loaded=20 with expensive goodies.=20
The problem is that the local population is=20 short of basic amenities like housing and=20 proper schooling and while they would=20 certainly utilise the boxing and baseball=20 facilities, baseball and archery are not=20 priorities.
The horrific incidence of violent crime in=20 South Africa also needed a face-lift before=20 it could be entered into Cape Town’s=20 impressive set of bid books. After all, we=20 cannot have the Western Cape’s murder rate=20 of 85,5 per 100 000 of the population=20 alongside the Swede’s paltry two murders or=20 the 2,14 of the Greeks or the three=20 homicides per 100 000 of the Argentinian=20 population.=20
So Cape Town’s wise men entered the=20 nonsensical term “violations” which can be=20 anything from a traffic offence to mass=20 murder. On page 16 of volume one of the=20 Cape Town bid books it is stated: “While=20 crime is currently at a high level in parts=20 of South Africa, Cape Town is generally=20 regarded as among the country’s safest=20 cities.”=20
But according to the police the ratio for=20 both murder and rape increased in Cape Town=20 over the last three years and, in both=20 cases, is well above the national average.=20 For example, in 1996 the murder rate of=20 85,5 was well above the national average of=20 61,1, while in the case of rape, the=20 shocking figure of 165 is well in excess of=20 the already shameful average of 119,5.
If Cape Town fails on September 5, all will=20 be well, and our precious but vulnerable=20 tourism destination can just resume its=20 strong, natural growth which, after all, is=20 based on real demand.=20
Should Cape Town be picked, run for cover,=20 because it would be the beginning of the=20 biggest Olympic soap opera in history.=20 Among others, land claims by the Graaff=20 family trust and the Ndabeni Restitution=20 Committee against Wingfield where the=20 Olympic stadium will be sited, would=20 intensify, Europeans will suddenly discover=20 the Koeberg nuclear reactor in the=20 vicinity, taxpayers will have to be told=20 that the bulk services at the sports=20 stadiums were not properly included in the=20 costs, and a Cape Town 2004 trade mark=20 dispute would feature because the initial=20 registrations were done by the original=20 bidding committee and all indications are=20 that they have not been paid all the money=20 owing to them.
– Pieter de Lange’s Olympic research=20 started in 1993 for his MBL degree. His=20 book, The Games Cities Play, is to be=20 published shortly