The ANC in the Western Cape did not jump. It was pushed. Andy Duffy reports
The African National Congress in the Western Cape is struggling to justify a decision that has opened the door to the partys eviction from the provincial Cabinet.
Senior party members are putting a positive spin on the ousting, talking about the principled stand against Premier Hernus Kriels move to enlarge the provincial Cabinet a stand that led Kriel to scrap the government of provincial unity, and with it his obligation to entertain four ANC MECs.
Several insiders have also suggested that the partys enforced status as formal opposition might goad it into seriously attempting to challenge the National Party in the province.
The situation could be just what is needed to reignite a power hungriness which has been absent until now, one insider says. The forced smiles aside, however, it is clear that the party in the province is reeling, unsure of its next move and pointing fingers.
There has been debate in the ANC-Congress of South African Trade Unions-Communist Party alliance for months about whether to leave the provincial Cabinet. But until now, the overriding view was that it would be unwise to relinquish strongly performing portfolios so close to the election. The party is having enough trouble winning support in the province with four Cabinet posts; without them, the task would be daunting.
There are also claims that provincial party leader and Minister of Justice Dullah Omar failed to give a lead on the issue; that personal vendettas by some MPLs against provincial ANC caucus leader Health and Social Services MEC Ebrahim Rasool neutralised Rasools arguments for cutting a deal with Kriel; that the party at national level is failing to take the problems of the Western Cape seriously.
We didnt leave (the provincial Cabinet) on principle, one insider concedes. We left by accident. Its called a strategic fuck-up.
The party is now scrambling around, looking for a way to salvage something from the mess. The initial prognosis does not look good. Omar decided on Sunday night that the party should produce detailed reports of what its MECs have achieved, which can then be used to used to mobilise popular support against the eviction a strategy that inspires few.
How about that for a bright idea, one office-bearer says.
The party is calling on business to argue the case for the government of provincial unity before Kriel, and has contacted the Institute for a Democratic South Africa (Idasa) to see if it can help change Kriels mind. All of which is humbling for a party whose MECs will control close to 60% of the provinces budget, until Kriel dumps them.
Kriels intentions have been known for some time. Earlier this year, the Mail & Guardian reported that Kriel wanted to reshuffle the provincial Cabinet, and that he was eyeing Rasools portfolio and Chris Nissens Economic Affairs and Reconstruction and Development Ministry. Both are high profile delivery portfolios Kriel himself has admitted that Rasool has performed well.
The ANCs other provincial Cabinet posts are in Sport and Recreation (Lerumo Kalako) and Leonard Ramatlakane at Transport and Public Works.
Kriels hand, however, was stayed while the Constitutional Court judged the merits of his proposed provincial constitution. Two weeks ago it rejected the constitution on minor technical grounds. These should have been cleared up when the provinces constitutional affairs standing committee met last Monday.
Instead, the ANC decided to oppose the clause expanding the number of MECs from 10 to 14. The party had previously voted the clause through, but then decided the increase could not be justified, given the provinces R247-million budget deficit.
Kriels response was blunt: to remove the clause in the constitution that guarantees the government of provincial unity through to 1999. Rasool tried on Wednesday to cut a deal with Kriel. But the wily Nat only needed the Freedom Front, the Democratic Party and African Christian Democratic Party to get the majority required to push the revision through. And as they all stood to gain from the posts the ANC would lose, they duly complied.
Once the Constitutional Court passes the provinces constitution, Kriel can dump the four ANC MECs. Were all feeling rather sheepish, to say the least, says one ANC member.
The question the ANC now faces is: what next? Kriel has indicated that at least one position in his new Cabinet could be available to the ANC, possibly to Rasool. The debate about accepting has still to take place, but several insiders say the party is unlikely to play ball.
The party has also suggested attempting to persuade Kriel to reopen negotiations on the constitution. Many party members, however, believe the ANC has little choice but to get on with the job of opposition. With less than two years to the election, it looks a tall order.
Nevertheless, insiders put a brave face on their prospects. The provincial government, apart from our portfolios, has achieved stuff all, one official says. There are good issues that we can take up.
Provincial ANC members are also quietly investigating what went wrong last week. It is an issue expected to be discussed at the partys national executive committee (NEC) meeting next month. The province also wants the NEC to draw up strategy for dealing with the issues of the Western Cape.
Its no good going to this province with whats going on at national level it has to be played out here on the ground, an office-bearer adds.