Gustav Thiel
The contention by Minister of Safety and Security Sydney Mufamadi that serious crime has decreased has been challenged by the Institute for Security Studies, which says there is undoubtedly a rise in crime.
Mufamadi based his optimism on crime figures for the first six months of the year, released last week. The figures indicated that none of the 20 most serious crime categories increased during this period, compared with the corresponding periods in previous years.
In five of the nine provinces incidents of murder were down from 1994 figures. KwaZulu-Natal still has more murders than any other province, with 4 314, which is 34,8% down from the toll during the first six months of 1994.
In the Western Cape, however, the murder rate increased 19,8% over the 1994 figures. The Western Cape remains the most dangerous province, with the highest ratio of murders to population 37,8 murders for every 100 000 people.
While Mufamadi admits there are weaknesses in the organisation of the Department of Safety and Security, he seems oblivious to voices warning that statistical assurances of a decrease in crime resulted in an oversimplification of crime trends in the country.
Jakkie Cilliers, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, says it is clear there is a rise in crime, and the major reason is simply that the police are not doing their job.
He adds that recent pronouncements by Mufamadi, which blamed increases in crime on the nexus between the third force and organised crime, smack of a political ploy a politically expedient cop-out.
The government needs a scapegoat [for crime], and the revelations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in the run-up to the elections in 1999 provide an appropriate avenue. Thus far I have argued that there is, at best, some levelling off of crime at very high levels, but no indication of any turnaround in recent years, Cilliers says.
His chief argument is that crime statistics still do not take into account the evolution of organised crime, which he says will increasingly dominate crime statistics.
Current evidence suggests organised crime has not only grown in scope worldwide and in South Africa, but has also changed significantly during the past decade.
Given that organised crime was never a priority under apartheid rule indeed, there is evidence that syndicates and gangs were used to police the opponents of the state it is difficult to measure its growth.
Mufamadi says the investigative capacity and quality of crime-fighting authorities can be improved. Early this year the Department of Safety and Security designated quality of investigations as inextricably linked to quality service delivered to the community, he says.
The mere fact that there is stabilisation and decrease on certain crime tendencies speaks of our potential to improve on clear-up rates of cases.
Cilliers says Meyer Kahns appointment as police CEO could be a mere political ploy to appease the business sector, which has been a vociferous critic of the way the government addressed crime in the past.
Kahns appointment comes at a time when South Africa spends around R11,9-billion on safety and security alone a 15% increase on money spent in 1996.