Winnie Madikizela-Mandelas bid for the deputy presidency of the African National Congress has rattled senior party leaders who fear she may emerge as a favourite.
Senior officials are already planning to rein in Madikizela-Mandela, should she win the race to succeed Thabo Mbeki, and to block her route to the deputy presidency of the government an ascendency assumed to be automatic for the occupant of the ruling partys number two slot.
One option for them is to strengthen the position of ANC secretary general, to keep the deputy president in check at party headquarters. Madikizela-Mandelas candidacy, following her nomination by the ANC Womens League, dramatically raises the stakes in the race, less than three months before the party is due to vote for its new leadership.
Up until now Mpumalanga Premier Mathews Phosa and the ANCs national chair Jacob Zuma have led the race, using their provincial bases to stake their claim. Some party officials fear both could be overtaken by Winnie, who is emerging as the front runner.
There is no evidence her grassroot support has waned , she has bounced back as president of the ANC Womens League, and is squarely confronting the Truth and Reconciliation Commission on allegations that she murdered the youthful activist Stompie Seipei.
Madikizela-Mandela also benefits from the theory that Mbeki needs a deputy who complements him, providing strategically important charisma to strengthen his mass appeal, both in the party and in the presidency.
Mbeki tends to be a boardroom person. He is not a mass-meeting person who comes off best when addressing crowds at a rally. That is why many people underestimate him. His deputy will have to have greater mass profile, said analyst Vincent Maphai, who has worked as an adviser to Mbeki.
While Madikizela-Mandela is good for a crowd, she is not conciliatory, and fails to impress party intellectuals, policy- makers and economists.
My understanding is that Winnie would get a Cabinet post but business just would not take her as deputy president of the government, said Jenny Cargill of Business Map.
I think you could safely say that there would be capital flight from South Africa if she got the position and they would have to take that into account.
Maphai believes that Phosa will win through in the end: I think he seems to be highly regarded in the ANC; he is presented as a man who is willing to face unpleasant issues such as corruption and he is seen to be not too close to Thabo, but at the same time, not too far from him.
Madikizela-Mandelas candidacy has also put renewed pressure on presidential representative, Joel Netshitenzhe, to stand for the position. He remains determined not to, despite entreaties from provincial leadership and former members of the United Democratic Front who believe him to be the ideal second in command, a perfect support to Mbeki.
Netshitenzhe is seen as a compassionate strategist with an open mind who does not entertain factions. He is said to act as a bridge between UDF groupings and former political exiles, between party structures and government. This week Netshitenzhe remained resolute against the pressure: No, I wont stand, I am just not cut out for it, he said. I want to continue what I am doing now.
ANC insiders say they are hoping that nearer the conference, possibly even at the last minute, with the threat of Madikizela-Mandela as a lever, he will be persuaded by President Nelson Mandela to change his mind.