Chris McGreal
Nigeria’s military government is poised for a new wave of arrests following the detention of 11 senior officers accused of plotting to violently overthrow the country’s dictator, General Sani Abacha.
A senior army source said the alleged plot extended beyond those already detained. Those arrested last weekend include Abacha’s deputy, three other generals and five colonels in a round-up which exposes both divisions within the army and the vulnerability of Nigeria’s 54 year-old military ruler.
After the “conspiracy” to overthrow the government two years ago, arrests continued for many weeks. Secret military tribunals sentenced more than 40 people to long prison terms or death, which were later commuted to life imprisonment amid an international outcry.
The government has provided no details or evidence for the latest alleged coup leading some of Abacha’s opponents to conclude that the arrests were part of a purge of potential threats to his rule.
Among those detained was General Oladipo Diya, the Abacha’s deputy. Diya was considered among his most loyal supporters. He played a key role in installing Abacha in power in the 1993 coup and proposed that Nigeria’s military ruler run for president in next year’s elections — a theme subsequently taken up by a horde of sycophants.
It may be that very issue which is behind the latest crisis. Abacha says he is committed to holding a ballot, but has encouraged the call for him to be a candidate. The army is known to be divided over the issue between those who wish to find a way to extend military rule and those who believe it is in Nigeria’s best interests, given its international isolation and popular discontent with the administration, to return to civilian government.
Although Diya was publicly urging an Abacha candidacy, he and most of the officers detained on Saturday night are Yorubas from south-western Nigeria where the pressure for genuinely free elections is greatest. Diya’s influence had also waned in recent months, particularly after a Cabinet reshuffle last week in which several of his allies — including two of the generals arrested on Saturday — were sacked.
At the same time, Nigeria’s ruler looked vulnerable amid reports that he is suffering from a life-threatening illness.
Abacha is known to be sensitive to perceived disloyalty. His fears have been fuelled by Nigeria’s international isolation since the execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa and his fellow Ogonis, even if Washington and London decline to stiffen sanctions because of Nigeria’s oil.
Nigeria is suspended from the Commonwealth, cut off from most development aid and the country’s military rulers have problems obtaining visas for their favourite places to shop, from London and New York to Johannesburg.
Abacha even fished for an invitation to this year’s Francophone summit in Vietnam in the hope of building fresh alliances. France is one of the few countries exploring closer ties with Nigeria.
This week the Nigerian government placed expensive, 20-page adverts in international news magazines in an attempt to boost the military government’s image. The adverts proclaimed the “Return of the Heavyweight”, predicting Nigeria’s economy will soon be fighting back. Abacha spoke of his “restoration of order” and pledged that the “spirit and letter” of the transition to democracy is being fulfilled.
But for all the promises, Nigeria remains mired in a sea of economic and political troubles. Few of the country’s impoverished tens of millions have noticed any improvement in their standard of living, while the military remains a synonym for corruption.
Nor do most people have much faith in Abacha’s elaborate route to democracy. The army decides which political parties are permitted to exist — it has legalised five — and who they may pick as their presidential candidates. As it happens, three of the parties say they will back Abacha if he runs.
The first bout of regional elections proved a flop with a poor turnout. The military’s opponents interpreted it as evidence of the lack of faith in the government’s democratisation programme.
Where Abacha has been successful is in stifling public dissent. Nigeria now has more political prisoners than at any time for many years. Since the detention of the 1993 election winner, Chief Moshood Abiola, and the crackdown on protests which followed, most Nigerian opposition supporters have decided to bide their time.
A spate of killings smacked of assassination. Among the victims was Abiola’s senior wife who was shot dead by gunmen while driving through Lagos. The army was itself the target at times as Nigeria was rocked over by sporadic bomb attacks. Some prominent opponents of the regime, such as Nobel literature laureate Wole Soyinka, have chosen exile because they fear for their lives.
It is indicative of the level of repression in Nigeria today that most newspapers dared do no more than report the December 21 official announcement of the alleged coup without analysis, elaboration or speculation.
After the 1995 conspiracy was exposed, journalists who reported unwelcome details of divisions inside the military were among those given long prison terms for complicity in the plot.