Maurice Hamilton: Motor racing:
If JacquesVilleneuve and Michael Schumacher pick up where they left off at the end of last year, they are in danger of fighting for the crumbs rather than the biggest slice of championship cake when the season opens in Melbourne on Sunday.
Schumacher’s questionable habit of crashing into his opponent as a final, desperate resort may have raised questions about Villeneuve’s wish for revenge, but the settling of personal scores between the Ferrari and Williams drivers is likely to become a minor issue if the McLaren team prove that technological advantages can outweigh even the most prodigious driving talent.
On the other hand, McLaren’s startling performance during recent testing could be an illusion created by the absence of a level playing field as the teams carry out their private preparations. This time last year, Benetton was the name on the lips of every pundit. The former champions then went to Australia for the first race, qualified in mid-field and almost vanished without trace as the season progressed.
McLaren are unlikely to face such a struggle, but traces of uncertainty indicate the simple fact that no one knows precisely what will happen in the wake of the most far-reaching technical changes seen for more than a decade.
The most fundamental and obvious difference is the introduction of grooved dry-weather tyres (as opposed to the smooth “slicks” which have been in use for over 25 years) and a narrower track (the lateral dimension between the wheels), the purpose of which is to reduce performance, particularly while cornering. With such a serious loss of grip (from the tyres) and downforce (caused by less air passing between the wheels and the chassis), the emphasis on a more delicate input from the driver may raise the value of his contribution.
But even the greatest driver needs a reasonable car in which to exploit his talent. The new rules mean the designers and aerodynamicists have been forced to go back to the same starting point; a formula, you would think, with the potential for change in the old order. The truth is that the bottom line is, literally, the bottom line. Those teams with the biggest budgets and most lavish resources will cope best. Expect, therefore, to see Williams, Ferrari, Benetton and McLaren lead the way.
Tyres could be the deciding factor. Last year, Bridgestone broke Goodyear’s monopoly, but the Japanese company did not have a top team on their books to provide vital feedback and force the pace of development. All of that changed when Goodyear announced that this would be their last season in Formula One, prompting McLaren to switch to Bridgestone, followed soon after by Benetton.
It is not clear how much influence Bridgestone had on McLaren’s impressive pace in Spain, but it has been enough to worry Williams and Ferrari. The hope is that the Goodyear tyres will come into their own when running on a hotter track surface than Barcelona could provide during the past few months. But, if Bridgestone have done their homework, McLaren may prove unstoppable.
McLaren will not rely on tyres alone to find an edge in performance. Much is expected of the latest car, since this is largely the work of Adrian Newey and an estimated 2- million pay-out as McLaren lured the highly- regarded designer away from Williams.
Last year, flaws in the Mercedes-Benz engine prevented McLaren from adding two more wins to their tally of three, but Ilmor Engineering have produced a completely new V10. If all of this works, then McLaren’s only difficulty will be the friction which is bound to occur as Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard fight for internal supremacy.
Williams, as the reigning champions, face their toughest task yet in maintaining the momentum which has seen the team from Oxfordshire win a record nine constructors’ championships. Much of the success has been due to the hugely efficient Renault engine but, now that the French manufacturer has officially pulled out of Formula One, it remains to be seen if their off-shoot, Mecachrome, can continue the development necessary to keep Williams on top.
Certainly, the team’s traditional thoroughness is not wanting, as witnessed by the new car completing 76 laps without a hitch on its first day out.
Ferrari must have wished they could have been as well prepared when their 1998 car failed to run properly for weeks. The advantage which should have accrued from being the first car to hit the track, in early January, was completely lost when various problems forced a retreat to the workshops. But that should not detract from the potential strength of the restructured technical department under the calming influence of Ross Brawn, the Englishman who helped bring Benetton and Michael Schumacher their success in 1994 and 1995.
Ferrari made a hesitant start last year but managed to sort themselves out in time to mount a championship challenge. This year, the Ferrari chairman has promised to win the title for the first time since 1979. That, in itself, will bring damaging pressure which Brawn and Schumacher might be hard- pressed to deal with.
Schumacher may also find he has to keep his team-mate in check. Eddie Irvine enters his third season with Ferrari in the knowledge that he must emerge from Schumacher’s massive shadow if he is to truly establish himself and shake off the image of being merely a useful No 2.
Benetton are under no illusions as they regroup following a disastrous two seasons, a single victory marking the sudden decline from pre-eminence. Gerhard Berger (retired) and Jean Alesi (moved to Sauber) have made way for the fresh attitudes of Giancarlo Fisichella and Alexander Wurz, two comparative youngsters with excellent potential.
The final and most important touch has been the appointment of David Richards as managing director, the owner of Prodrive (who run Colin McRae and the championship- winning Subaru rally team) bringing timely motivation to a company with top-class resources and potential. The switch to Bridgestone could be a huge benefit. On the other hand, Benetton, also running Mecachrome engines, may join Williams in suffering from the effects of Renault’s withdrawal.
Benetton will need to get their act together in the face of a mounting threat from Jordan and, possibly later in the year, Prost. The rest are likely to fight it out in a close contest for leadership of the also-ran division.
It is impossible to say just who will be leading since, despite the optimistic claims and impressive testing performances, McLaren, Williams and Ferrari have not run at the same time on the same track. The only certainty is that Michael Schumacher will be quick, even if his Ferrari is merely half- reasonable; a fact which is recognised by Ron Dennis, the managing director of McLaren.
“No one is in the same league as Michael,” says Dennis. “I think what everyone must recognise is that he has achieved great results in very adverse conditions. After that observation, almost everything else is immaterial. Our task is really to provide our drivers with a technological advantage.”
On the evidence of pre-season testing, McLaren-Mercedes might have done precisely that. But don’t count on it just yet.