Although most smaller local enterprises are in a state of denial about the year 2000 computer glitch, a recent survey reveals they are at the highest risk, writes David Shapshak
Local government structures together with small and medium businesses have emerged as high-risk areas most likely to be affected by the year 2 000 computer bug, according to preliminary results of a government survey.
The survey, instituted by communications minister Jay Naidoo, has also found that major financial institutions and corporations are already dealing with the year 2 000 problem. The glitch, known as Y2K, is forecast to occur at midnight on December 31 1999, when computers’ internal clocks fail to recognise the change of centuries from 1900 to 2000. Computer experts have warned of economic and social chaos if computers are not reprogrammed, or made compliant with Y2K hardware and software.
The survey, which forms the first part of the government’s action plan to cope with Y2K, found local authority structures – the engine room of local government – at high risk if precautionary measures are not taken soon.
“Small and medium enterprises in most cases are not too aware of the problem and don’t have the resources to deal with it,” says the head of a government task team, Mohamed Madhi.
Mahdi is the chief executive of a section 21 company, the National Year 2000 Decision Board Centre, formed by the government to act as a co-ordinating body to monitor compliance and give business, government departments and parastatals advice. The government’s action plan is on track, he says.
“The analysis [of the survey] will be completed in the next four weeks and we will be able to provide an assessment of the country’s readiness by the end of April or the first week of May,” he says.
An operations centre, planned to monitor the country’s state of readiness and host a help-line, will be set-up.
Madhi’s team is also working on compiling a readiness index (sorted by economic sector) and a list of companies with Y2K-ready products.
The task team this week called for nominations for people to serve on the seven sub-committees, which fall under its auspices. It will be their task to ensure compliance in the government, the financial sector, parastatals, the information technology sector, as well as among industrial and other computer users.
But computer experts warned last year in December, when Naidoo announced the action plan, that it may be a case of too little too late.
Says Professor Ken MacGregor, of the University of Cape Town’s computer science department: “It would have been a good start two years ago.”
MacGregor says the country needs an aggressive conversion strategy to modify all the affected programmes and computers in the 20 months left till the next millennium.
Madhi adds: “Something has to be done. Having an important initiative launched is better than doing nothing or crying there’s no time. I feel there is still time, as long as companies provide adequate resources allocated to the problem.
“If that isn’t done soon, then there is cause for very serious concern.”
However, Elmar Roberg, who heads a Y2K special interest group, warns that South African projects tend to be 25% overdue; meaning a one-year project is frequently only completed in a year and three months. “There’s no latitude for such slackness with this problem,” he says.
One computer industry source said while the United States is expected to achieve compliancy by July 1999, South Africa is thought to be at least a year behind in preparations.
But elsewhere in the world, the problem is still dire. In Britain, for instance, only 16% of companies have started to convert software.
Richard Vernon, local year 2000 executive for computer giant IBM, said the action plan was generally positive.
“No organisation is an island. They are all interlinked and have trading dependencies on each other. If social services fail, everybody feels it.”
He cautions that it is important not to overlap resources and to focus on specific targets.
Madhi agrees, raising the concern that while major companies may have their own individual Y2K projects on track, they may not have grasped the seriousness of their dependency on suppliers and distributors.
These smaller companies rely on personal computers which are a potential problem because they could be using non-compliant hardware and software, which is still being sold.
The computer industry source said these smaller businesses tend to see Y2K as big business’s concern, because the bug is thought to be a mainframe problem. But, if they are affected, it could cripple their operations and bankrupt them.
Another factor that emerged from the survey is a huge shortage of resources and skills, which needs to be redressed by government and private enterprise.
An awareness campaign began last week, but the survey identified that people have difficulty believing there is a problem. “Overcoming that mental hurdle is a prime concern,” says Madhi, whose board is convened by Naidoo and reports to a ministerial committee chaired by Deputy President Thabo Mbeki.
The allocation of R30-million to increase awareness about the Y2K problem is still being reviewed.
Then there are the “hidden” concerns: embedded electronic equipment which relies on a clock which may or may not be compliant and therefore could fail at the turn of the century. Some international airlines are planning to ground all their planes over the transition period in case there’s an undiscovered piece of equipment which may fail.