Soccer legend Ruud Gullit gives his views on how to survive the biggest soccer event of its kind
The most important thing is to take the first round very seriously indeed. It is not just a matter of getting the lesser nations out of the way before the real fun starts: teams that think that way will fall on their faces, because even the `little’ nations are tactically sophisticated now and can defend with the best of them. Unless San Marino ever qualify for the finals, the days of five- and six-goal thrashings are gone for good.
But what the first round does offer is three guaranteed games in which to acclimatise to the competition, and build a platform for further progress. There are a hundred different and difficult things to get used to, from the constant media attention and the invariably warm weather to the necessity of living like monks for a month, usually behinds Colditz-type security. Germany and Brazil have proved that they can deal with this. Others must show that they can too.
I am cautious about dispensing advice to any of the sides’ coaches, but I can tell them that the need to remain focussed is paramount.
Forget the friendly results; Holland always did. Forget what the media are saying, whether it is good or bad. Forget the whole tournament if necessary. When Holland played Russia in the European Championships final in 1988, the entire squad spent the evening before watching Whitney Houston in concert.
That worked for us, but it wouldn’t in Italy – it probably wouldn’t even be allowed. But every side is different and you work out what is best for you.
Each coach must remain focused, as must each player.
The finals only come around every four years and every game takes on a huge significance. If you can use each one as a building block, if you can grow in confidence and experience as the competition unfolds, you are on the right track.
So don’t ask me who will win. At this stage I can only name the usual suspects, the teams who have proved they can win. I expect a strong challenge from France, and Nigeria could become the first African team to reach the last four, but these are only probabilities.
Brazil, Germany and possibly Argentina are also strong contenders.
For me, Italy are the outsiders this time (despite their World Cup record). As usual they are under a lot of pressure – and that’s something they can cope with. But they will have to work hard to win back their reputation as major contenders. I doubt that many people in Italy seriously think they can bring back the trophy this time.
Ask me at the end of the first stage, when we have seen how everyone has negotiated the group matches, and I will know a lot more about each team’s potential. That may seem obvious, but there is a fundamental truth about World Cups which is so obvious it is often overlooked: the longer you stay in, the more chance you have of winning.
Ruud Gullit is writing for the Mail & Guardian’s sister paper in London, The Observer, and will give his views on the World Cup each week