Chris McGreal
Nigeria’s new military leader, General Abdulsalam Abubakar, appears close to releasing the imprisoned presidential election winner, Moshood Abiola, after the two men held talks ostensibly aimed at agreeing on conditions for the restoration of civilian rule.
But opposition sources say the army is pressing Abiola to renounce his claim to the presidency and to agree to fresh elections run by the military as a precondition for his freedom after four years in jail. The new military government says it is searching for ways to break the political impasse created by the heavy-handed tactics of Abubakar’s predecessor, Sani Abacha, who died suddenly a fortnight ago.
Some opposition leaders fear Abiola may strike a private deal with the army at the expense of the broader campaign for democracy. The British government is encouraged enough by the negotiations and the release of some political prisoners to despatch Foreign Office Minister Tony Lloyd for talks with Abubakar in Abuja on Friday June 26.
Last week Tony Blair, the British prime minister, ended the European Union’s diplomatic isolation of Nigeria by telephoning the general to urge an end to military rule and to discuss Abiola’s fate. Abubakar has twice held talks with the 60- year-old chief, who won the 1993 presidential election annulled by the army. He was jailed for treason a year later after unilaterally declaring himself president.
Abiola’s whereabouts are uncertain amid reports that he has been moved from prison to a house in the capital, Abuja. Government officials have also met leaders of the opposition National Democratic Coalition, according to its leader, Abraham Adesanya.
“I don’t see any reason for refusing to attend the talks,” he said. “If somebody in authority says he needs your advice, you give it. It is a different thing if he does not use it.”
But other mainstream democracy groups say the military has made no approach to them, and fear that Abubakar may be falling back on the army’s well-tried tactic of co-option and creating division. It seems unlikely the military will just concede power.
Although most opposition leaders publicly demand recognition of the June 12 1993 presidential ballot because they believe it is the only way to lever the military from power, some politicians consider Abiola susceptible to co-option by the army.
“The military’s talking but we don’t know where it’s going,” said one opposition source. “There’s a lot of suspicion that they want to get Abiola to agree to new elections which they can manipulate or that they will promise to make Abiola a nominal leader in a government still controlled by the army. Our big fear is that Abiola comes to his own deal with Abubakar and that will undermine the whole claim for June 12.”
Last week the army released nine prominent political prisoners, including former military ruler General Olesegun Obasanjo, pro-democracy campaigners, trade union leaders and a journalist. But dozens, if not hundreds, more remain in prison. The leader of the Campaign for Democracy, Beko Ransome- Kuti, was among those freed.
He said the army has not made any approach to him for talks and he is sceptical about the military’s intent.
“I’m neither encouraged nor discouraged about what is going on except that I don’t know why they’ve only released only a few out of hundreds of political prisoners. I think it’s all the same old game. The military says it has consulted, as it puts it, and then they say that after widespread consultations they are going to stay in power or run elections their way,” he said.
While much is made of Abiola’s 1993 election victory, the race was neither free nor fair. The military permitted only two political parties to compete in the ballot, and barred a slew of potential presidential candidates from standing.
But Ransome-Kuti says that whatever the concerns about Abiola there is little alternative.
“There’s problems with fresh elections. Who would head an interim government if not Abiola? If the military wants to head it again we’re just back where we were. What we want is that the army should go back to the barracks and Abiola should organise his own government around a sovereign national conference which would draft a new Constitution and sit as Parliament. Abiola cannot do worse than the army, and he has a mandate,” he said.