/ 31 July 1998

Lesotho crisis deepens

The continuing battle over alleged electoral fraud could plunge the region into turmoil, writes William Boot

Opposition parties in Lesotho this week expressed “great shock” at a “serious rumour alleging a possible resolution by some people in high places or quarters to banish from Lesotho His Majesty the King and declare a state of emergency”.

A statement they issued warned “those who might be approaching a state of mental derangement … that they are already committing treason” and that the nation would “resist them with vigour and resolve”.

Treason? Banishment? His Majesty the King? Like so much about Lesotho, the statement has a curiously medieval flavour about it. But the events and intrigues that lie behind it appear to be contemporary enough in their cynicism, and could plunge the territory into turmoil lasting well into the 21st century.

The resolution that the three major opposition parties – the Basotho National Party, the Basotholand Congress Party and the Maramatlou Freedom Party – were referring to was reportedly taken at a secret bosberaad last weekend at the Katse Dam.

Attended by members of the governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy, the Cabinet and top securocrats, the bosberaad was nothing if not a crisis meeting. The very survival of the government was at stake after a high court ruling handed down in Maseru last Thursday.

Lesotho Minister of Foreign Affairs Tom Thabane confirmed that the bosberaad had taken place, but denied drastic decisions had been taken.

“This is the worst lie that anyone could have published. There is no way the government could have taken such a decision. We have run the country for the past five years and the king has never been a political problem. There is no way this party can banish the king,” Thabane said.

“It is the previous rulers who have the history of banishing the king twice. These are people who failed to get to power through elections, and now they want to do it through extraordinary means.”

The high court ruling followed a case brought by Lesotho’s opposition parties. They alleged they had unconstitutionally been denied access to voters’ rolls and other relevant documentation on the May 23 elections – and that there had been widespread and systematic electoral fraud.

They produced comprehensive forensic audits of six constituencies to make their point. Compiled by South African forensic auditors OF&A, the analyses suggested the presence of significant numbers of “ghosts” on the voters’ rolls – sufficient numbers to ensure the resounding victory registered by the Lesotho Congress for Democracy, which won all but one of the 79 seats.

The high court judge said the six constituencies analysed were not sufficient to prove systematic fraud. But he left the question open, ordering that the records of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) be made available for scrutiny.

To turn up the temperature even higher, there is another case before the courts. This is the appeal of an earlier application to have the elections postponed in the light of alleged constitutional irregularities.

The applicants claim the IEC failed to meet constitutional requirements to give opposition parties access to provisional voters’ rolls before the May elections.

While the judgement has yet to be delivered, it is believed the Appeal Court will decide whether the whole can of worms should be sent to the country’s constitutional monarch, King Letsie III.

In terms of the Constitution, the king has the power to annul elections and dissolve Parliament if electoral fraud can be proved.

It was against this backdrop, and in a climate of growing resistance, that Prime Minister Pakaditha Mosisili, the Cabinet and a select group of security officials went into their secret weekend conference.

Sources close to the process told the Mail & Guardian some startling decisions were taken in protracted meetings and at a braai for which Lesotho Defence Force chief Lieutenant General Makhula Mosakeng apparently donated three sheep.

The idea was mooted of declaring a state of emergency, with the effect of suspending the rule of law.

The emergency could be declared for two reasons. First, there was the threat (many believe it is a real threat) of a military coup in the ranks of the Basotho National Party-supporting defence force.

Second, there was a threat of civil unrest arising out of an opposition march planned for August 4 to protest perceived irregularities in the elections.

At the same time, the bosberaad reportedly considered banishing the newly crowned King Letsie. This would prevent the monarch from performing any constitutional functions in Lesotho, and also keep him out of any potential political alliances with the opposition.

There was a precedent for this: Letsie’s earlier hands-on involvement in politics led to his exile in the early part of this decade. It was only after he accepted a circumscribed role as constitutional monarch that he was finally crowned last year.

It is possible that by publicising the rumoured plot to unseat the king, opposition parties may have pre-empted the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy’s reported plans.

The stakes could be high. With Lesotho dependent on South Africa for more than two-thirds of its economy, significant pressure could be brought to bear if the government goes ahead with the reported plans.

There is also a threat posed by an emerging labour movement in Lesotho, closely affiliated with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), whose unstated agenda is nothing less than incorporation into South Africa. Constitutional uncertainty in Lesotho could well result in escalating labour unrest, and play into Cosatu’s hands.

A crisis could, however, still be averted. This week Lesotho’s opposition parties briefed a troika of Southern African Development Community leaders – President Nelson Mandela, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and Botswana’s Festus Mogae – on the situation. Behind-the-scenes negotiations could restore enough calm for the elections issue to be resolved once and for all.

Few observers, though, are betting they will.