John Grobler
The South West African People’s Organisation (Swapo) leadership is expected to propose amending the Namibian Constitution this month to give President Sam Nujoma a third term of office.
The Constitution restricts the president to two terms, but at the Swapo extraordinary congress, set to take place at the end of August, party stalwarts hope to push through an endorsement of Nujoma’s quest for a third term.
The Swapo leadership has made it clear they will use their 72% majority in Parliament to amend the Constitution. Swapo secretary general Hifekepunye Pohamba says Nujoma was not directly elected in 1990, and this term should not count.
At Swapo’s 1997 congress, Nujoma’s quest for another term was endorsed, and public defiance by party members will probably result in expulsion. But public support for Nujoma has been less enthusiastic this time, especially from Minister of Trade and Industry Hidipo Hamutenya and Minister of Higher Education Nahas Angula.
A recent survey among Namibia’s young intellectuals indicated that the ruling party has all but lost them, and that they would vote for anyone but Swapo under the present leadership.
Nujoma has responded to this by aligning himself with calls from hardline unionists, like Ponhele ya France, for nationalisation of Namibia’s mines and confiscation of commercial farmland without compensation. These measures would be illegal under the Constitution.
Nujoma has warned Namibia’s mostly white farmers that he will increase agricultural taxes unless they support his land reform programmes. In reality, this is something that neither the government nor the farmers can afford. Most absentee land-owners are Germans, and the government has signed a protection-of-investment agreement with the German government that guarantees market- related pay-outs for any property the government seizes.
Of late, Nujoma has also been ardently soliciting support among the less-educated Swapo supporters in northern, rural Namibia, where he recently lambasted foreigners “for creating ethnic division” among Namibians.
In particular, he lashed out at “Americans and Germans” for opposing his grandiose plans to construct a hydro-electric dam on the Cunene River in Koakoland, an area where Swapo has never enjoyed any significant political support.
Nujoma launched a virulent attack on the Legal Assistance Centre (LAC) for supporting the Epupa community, on whose land he would like to see the tallest dam in Africa built for R4,5-billion – roughly two-thirds of the national budget. Continuing support for this community could get these foreigners deported, Nujoma threatened.
The LAC wisely maintained a diplomatic silence. Support was, however, immediately forthcoming from a powerful friend: United States ambassador George F Ward publicly praised the LAC and promised more financial support for its work.
Nujoma’s extraordinary outburst against foreigners was seen as a measure of his frustration at objections by the powerful foreign donor community in Namibia to his amibitions.
Ostensibly, next month’s Swapo congress will debate and implement political reforms to “harmonise and streamline” party structures in line with proposals from a special committee. But the committee is headed by Foreign Minister Theo-Ben Gurirab and Hamutenya.
As Swapo’s foremost intellectual and self- avowed democrat, Gurirab is set to assume the revolving presidency of the United Nations General Assembly in 1999, where he would be hard-pressed to defend Nujoma’s unconstitutional actions.
But Nujoma’s strongest challenger may be Hamutenya, who represents the powerful Kwanyama faction within Swapo. The fact that he not been sidelined in five Cabinet reshuffles in eight years is seen as a measure of his power.
Swapo’s huge parliamentary majority may yet prove to be its undoing. Members of the National Council – more in touch with grassroots support than the members of the National Assembly – have protested against a top-heavy political structure that favours the old guard.
The editor of The Namibian newspaper, Gwen Lister, has suggested the issue of the third term can only be decided by secret parliamentary ballot. While she did not hold out much hope for a secret ballot at the Swapo congress, Lister wrote recently, prominent party members espoused different views in private than in public.
It was therefore incumbent upon the speaker of Namibia’s Parliament, Mose Tjitendero, to assure that any proposed constitutional changes be decided by secret ballot, Lister wrote.
It is, however, highly unlikely that Swapo would abide by calls for a secret ballot at its congress in Windhoek. But as Tjitendero is elected by the National Assembly, he may be democracy’s last hope in Namibia.