Chiara Carter
Image may not be all, but the brew of perceptions and policy that translates into voter support looks decidedly murky for the African National Congress and the National Party in the Western Cape.
A MarkData survey released by Professor Lawrence Schlemmer indicates the haemorrhage of support for the NP countrywide has not stopped at the border of its stronghold, the Western Cape. The survey places voter support for the party, which rules the region, at about 30% – which leaves it the largest party in the region but with its support diminished since 1994.
The NP’s loss has not translated into the ANC’s gain. The MarkData survey places ANC voter support in the region at around 22% – a decline from 1994, when the party commanded more than one out of three votes.
The survey found Democratic Party support at 20,4%. This trend would translate into the DP holding the balance of power in the region.
Much of the shift can be attributed to white voters deserting the NP for the DP which, despite its small size in Parliament, has made a far more convincing display of opposition than the larger NP or the Inkatha Freedom Party.
But the key to power in the Western Cape lies with coloured voters – a group the ANC hoped to win, not least after victories in a series of rural local government elections.
There has been a series of blows to ANC hopes, however. Changes in the welfare grant system, turmoil in education and crime have not helped win voter confidence – any more than the resignation of former NP leader FW de Klerk and the revelations at the Truth and Reconciliation Commission have helped the NP.
It’s not just a question of policy and track record in governance. Western Cape voters, who associate parties with personalities, face lacklustre alternatives.
The Western Cape is no more likely than the rest of the country to find NP leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk an inspiring option. Cape Flats voters are a lot less likely to have confidence in Thabo Mbeki, who is in the popular mind more likely to be associated with the ”African renaissance” than issues that drive coloured voters.
It’s no brighter at regional level, where the NP’s Gerald Morkel is pitted against the ANC’s fourth leader in as many years, Ebrahim Rasool. Rasool is widely regarded as a worthy but bland leader, and seemingly has blundered with his recent premature revelations about NP involvement in alleged gambling industry bribes.
Ironically, the ANC’s one charismatic leader has come back to haunt it. The timing of the fraud trial of former ANC leader Allan Boesak could not have been worse – it is expected to run for three months and the sentence is likely in the middle of next year’s election campaign.
Regional leaders of the NP are poised to make a bid to stamp a coloured indentity on the party, insiders say. There is strong speculation that the NP regional conference scheduled for the end of next month will see a bid to elect an all- coloured leadership, with former welfare minister Patrick McKenzie possibly elected as Morkel’s second in command.
Still to be seen is how much support the United Democratic Movement will command among coloured voters. The UDM – which according to MarkData stands to win 6,5% of votes countrywide – might well win more support in Western Cape townships than predicted.