/ 11 September 1998

Financial fallout Down Under

Donna Block

Share World

The wicked witch of the East is once again spoiling things in the land of Oz. The troubles plaguing Australia’s Asian neighbours has left the country’s stocks sagging and commodity prices hitting new lows.

Australia and New Zealand are vulnerable to an economic downturn. Their stock markets are suffering not only from the global meltdown but also from commodity prices that have undermined investor confidence.

There are hopes that healthier gold and oil prices will boost the market until the end of the year – if Russia doesn’t decide to flood the market with its reserves of these commodities.

The Australian Stock Exchange is the 10th-largest in the world and one of the biggest markets for mining stocks, which account for a third of the 1 200 listings. However, this mining-heavy complexion is changing with the privatisation of one-third of the government telecommunications company, the listings of private communication and Internet companies and the demutualisation of the country’s largest insurance companies. Newer sectors like casino and hotel operations are also making a splash.

More than A$25-billion was raised in offers last year. While many listings have been put on hold recently, the market has benefited from mandatory contributions to retirement plans.

But the global market debacle has left share prices at their lowest level in years. Coupled with a cheap Australian dollar, this means foreign groups are shopping for bargain-basement takeovers. “In my view, Australia has become a giant corporate supermarket,” said Don Argus, the managing director of National Australia Bank, the country’s largest bank. He pointed to American banks, British banks and insurance companies, and European companies as possible suitors.

Foreign investment plays a large part in the market, accounting for up to 30% of equity ownership, and there are only restrictions on Qantas Airways and a small number of media companies. The Australian government has a “four pillar” policy which bars any of the nation’s four largest banks from merging with each other, but does not bar foreign banks from taking over any of them.

Not only has the exchange taken on a new look but it is also becoming an innovator in the world of stock exchanges. In 1987, Australia merged its six regional exchanges into one national bourse, which now wants to convert from a mutual organisation run by its members to a company that issues shares. It would become the first stock exchange in the world to become a listed company, probably listing on itself.

It’s a move the bours believes is vital to gain a competitive edge over other bourses, particularly in Asia, and has been promoted by those who want to see a more aggressive posture on topics like 24-hour trading.

There are many issues yet to be resolved, like whether individual share holdings in the exchange should be limited to prevent a possible takeover and how short-term pressure for profit will be reconciled with the exchange’s need to invest funds in regulating trading.

The nearby New Zealand Stock Exchange is also innovative. Befitting its position in the first time zone over the international dateline, it is the first stock exchange to be open every day.

The bourse operates on an electronic screen-based system which captures pricing information on a first-come- first-served basis at each price level. Not only is it faceless but settlement is also paperless, making it one of the most technologically advanced exchanges in the world.

At the beginning of this year, the total capitalisation on the exchange was more than NZ$60-billion. There are more than 220 listings with two-thirds being New Zealand-based companies and the balance overseas companies. The majority of listings are commodity based. The steady pressure on the New Zealand dollar was expected to support these export focused stocks, but even cheaper exports from Asian countries has now eliminated that possibility.

Investors took fright at Russia’s turmoil and New Zealand’s share market didn’t stand a chance. It has lost NZ$6,7-billion since mid-July and analysts believe it could lose another 10% before it starts to recover.

Among the worst-hit stocks were foresters, paper and pulp and construction. Fishing and livestock are doing slightly better since competition in this area is limited.

One investment professional summed up recent events: “We’re just totally reactive to events beyond our control and that’s the way we will stay for a while. The big thing for our market is going to be how the Dow [Jones index] reacts.”