More disillusioned MPs are expected to defect to the Democratic Party, writes Howard Barrell
As the Democratic Party increasingly assumes the mantle of unofficial leader of the opposition in Parliament from the ailing National Party, a number of MPs from other opposition parties are expected to jump ship in coming weeks.
Only the timing of the defections is holding them back – the DP wants to maximise a bandwagon effect in the run-up to next year’s election, and the defectors want to secure their places on the DP’s electoral lists. Local DP members are expected to have drawn up the lists by Christmas on a province-by-province basis.
Opposition party officials and individual MPs will not confirm the names of those understood to be preparing to defect, but the NP, led by Marthinus van Schalkwyk, is again expected to be the main loser.
Last month, Sam de Beer, Gauteng leader of the NP, defected to the United Democratic Movement, headed by former NP secretary general Roelf Meyer and Bantu Holomisa.
In recent months, the DP has been calling the shots in an intriguing bout of manoeuvring among opposition parties. Opinion polls now suggest it has overtaken the NP and has the most voter support after the African National Congress.
The DP has been trying to lay the basis for limited tactical co-operation with other parties during the election campaign.
This could greatly improve prospects for coalitions of opposition parties in the provinces, with the aim of keeping the ANC out of provincial governments.
The DP believes it and other opposition parties may well be able to do this in, among others, Gauteng, the Northern Cape and the Western Cape. But this strategy is not without its drawbacks.
The nerves of some DP supporters were jangled by the agreement it struck recently with the Freedom Front.
“Our members’ nervousness resulted because we weren’t careful enough with the release of information about the monitoring agreement,” said a DP parliamentary official this week.
“And then there were terminological problems, with some journalists using words like `agreement’, `pact’ and `alliance’ interchangeably.”
The deal with the FF is a minimalist one. It provides for the two parties to share resources only to the extent of monitoring the election process.
The two will try to ensure that all opposition parties are allowed to campaign freely in areas where they are well represented and that proper procedures are followed at more than 13 000 polling stations on election day. The agreement does not entail co-operation on campaigning or policy.
Nonetheless, despite their fundamental political differences, a good chemistry has developed between DP leader Tony Leon and Constand Viljoen, the FF leader and former apartheid general. Both are tough, plain- speaking men.
The DP’s election campaign will hinge on two central claims: that it alone can provide an effective opposition to the ANC; and that, under Leon’s leadership, the party is now offering a kind of “muscular liberalism” radically different from the gentility of the past.
Various recent moves, including Leon’s decision that DP MPs should boycott the address to Parliament by Cuban President Fidel Castro, have telegraphed this uncompromising style.
One of the DP’s main campaign aims is to emerge as the biggest opposition party at the election. This objective looks feasible. Opinion polls show support for the NP, the current official opposition, has halved since the 1994 election, and is now down to about 9%.
By comparison, the polls indicate the DP now has the backing of 10% of South African voters – 10 times what its support base was just after the 1994 election.
The DP’s second main aim is to prevent an ANC government after the election from having a two-thirds majority in Parliament and sufficient support in the pro-vinces to change the Constitution unilaterally.
The DP has sidestepped an attempt by the NP to draw it into a close form of political and organisational unity. In June, the NP offered the DP a series of options for co- operation, including full integration.
The DP saw this as an attempt by the NP to hug it so close that it would have to end its highly successful efforts in recent months to win over NP members. “Nice try, but we could see it coming a mile off,” said one DP official.