funds
The new census figures prove that several provinces are not receiving a fair share of the national spending pie, writes Ann Eveleth
South Africa’s poorest provinces may have to struggle with a “Cinderella” funding complex for the next five years, in spite of new census figures that prove they are underfunded.
It will take the government that long to “phase in” changes to provincial budgets to reflect the raised population figures of Census 96, which showed that South Africa had three million more people than initial findings suggested.
At least half of the “missing” three million people overlooked by the preliminary census count released last year live in the Northern Province (800 000) and KwaZulu-Natal (700 000). In contrast, the comparatively wealthy Western Cape has benefited from a 200 000-strong “ghost” population since last year, due to overestimates in the preliminary census report.
Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel has repeatedly said the census would have serious implications for provincial budgetary allocations. But Manuel said this week adjustments to bring each province’s share of the national spending pie in line with their populations were “likely to be phased in over a period of five years to avoid shocks to the system”.
South Africa’s nine provinces collectively receive 58% of the national budget. Provincial governments use this budget to pay staff salaries – including teachers – and to implement national development and social service delivery plans. Population is not the only factor that determines a province’s share of this purse, but it is an important part of the formula.
The preliminary Census 96 results, released in July 1997, put South Africa’s total population at 37,9-million. The final census results, announced this week, revised this figure upward by almost three million to 40,6-million. While most provinces gained population numbers, this did not significantly affect their percentage share of the national population.
But the impoverished Northern Province’s share of the national population burden rose from 10,9% to 12,1%. KwaZulu-Natal’s population, initially estimated at 20,3% of the population, grew to 20,7%.
These increased figures add credence to calls from these provinces for a “fairer share” of the national purse – calls that have sounded louder as these and other poor provinces have lurched from one financial crisis to the next over the past two years.
The census also found an additional 400 000 people living in the Eastern Cape – another province plagued by funding crises.
While development planners using the Census 96 results will have to revise these figures to take account of new services delivered over the past two years, the findings identify key areas where needs are most concentrated.
Statistics South Africa head Mark Orkin explained that the discrepancy between preliminary and final census figures had occurred because the rural poor had been less inclined to tell enumerators that they had been missed during the counting process.
More rural people live in the Northern Province (4,4-million), KwaZulu-Natal (4,8-million), and the Eastern Cape (four million) than in any other provinces. The three provinces also have the highest proportion of women, with the Northern Province topping the gender imbalance stakes with 54,3% women, followed by the Eastern Cape at 53% and KwaZulu-Natal at 53,1%.
The Northern Province also suffers the worst education backlog, with 36,9% of those older than 20 lacking any formal schooling. This is followed by Mpumalanga (29,4%) and KwaZulu-Natal (22,9%). At the other end of the spectrum, the North-West province has the lowest proportion of tertiary qualifications in the country, at 4,2%, followed by the Northern Province (4,5%), Eastern Cape (4,7%) and KwaZulu- Natal (4,8%).
Another disturbing census finding is the disproportionate concentration of disabilities among Africans – one of four categories used in the census, the others being Indians, coloureds and whites. Africans account for 87% of disabled South Africans, but only 77% of the national population.
Poorer health care, greater work-related risks and a higher exposure to violence are among the possible explanations for this phenomenon – all of which suggest that development imbalances breed long-term problems.
The proportion of disabled Africans also reached 10% of their number at a much lower age group (40 to 44) than other population groups. Disabled coloured and Indian people reached the 10% threshold between the ages of 60 and 64, while the age at which white disability reached 10% was between 75 and 79 years.
The census findings also offer a tentative challenge to South African xenophobia. While estimates of the number of foreigners living in South Africa have ranged from 1,8-million to five million, Census 96 found that just less than one million people living in South Africa were not born here. Just over half of these (549 720) were born in Africa – of whom nearly 21% were white – with the remainder coming from Europe (217 198), Asia, the Americas, Australia, New Zealand or other countries.
The effectiveness of the census in tracing illegal immigrants remains a matter of debate. However, the white population’s higher proportion of foreign-born people (8%) compared to the African population’s 1,4%, may put paid to perceptions that the country is flooded with black neighbours slipping across the borders.
ENDS