Howard Barrell
Armed rebels are making skilful use of rainy season in the jungles of the Democratic Republic of Congo to push back President Laurent Kabila’s army and allied Angolan, Namibian and Zimbabwean forces, say intelligence sources and security analysts.
The rebels, familiar with local conditions, have been pressing forward mainly on foot in the knowledge that low cloud makes it difficult for pro-government forces to use air power effectively. Muddy conditions are also making a lot of the heavy armour and tanks on the government side more of a liability than an asset.
The rebels’ use of United States-made Iridium satellite telephones has given them a high degree of tactical flexibility – unmatched by Kabila’s forces and those of his African allies. Iridium, the first low- orbit satellite communications system, has world coverage and operates much like a cellular network. Analysts attribute the rebels’ seizure of the key town of Kindu in the north-east in October and subsequent successes to these innovative tactics.
The analysts say that the rebels and their allies in Unita, which has long had rear bases in Angola, are likely to have Kabila dislodged by February next year. “The rebel advance would be much quicker if it was not the rainy season now,” says Jakkie Potgieter of the Midrand-based Institute of Security Studies.
The main rebel advance is on the diamond- mining centre of Mbuji-Mayi and the south- eastern province of Katanga. But the rebels also have a substantial force fighting its way down the Congo River towards Kinshasa.
Meanwhile, Unita forces in bases scattered on Congo territory along the length of the country’s southern border with Angola have turned their attentions northwards and are now advancing against Congo government positions. This means pro-Kabila forces are now under attack from almost all directions.
The intelligence sources and analysts doubt that Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe have the capacity to mount the counter-offensive against rebels in the east of the country which they promised Kabila earlier this month.
“They can’t use the air power they would need, they don’t have the resources and equipment and they are suffering a high attritional casualty rate,” one said.
The sources say that a high proportion of Namibian and Zimbabwean troops in particular, who are unfamiliar with the terrain, are contracting tropical diseases. About 100 of the 700 Namibian troops sent to Congo are now understood to be back in hospital in Namibia.
Namibia has so far deployed about half of its complement of 1 500 fully combat trained and equipped forces in Congo. Zimbabwe, with between 5 500 and 6 000 troops in Congo, has now deployed all its combat forces.