Howard Barrell
African leaders were guardedly optimistic about making progress towards peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo at their meeting in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, which began this week.
South Africa has rejoined Congo peace efforts, indicating that it has received assurances from African states supporting Laurent Kabila, Congo’s erratic president, that the new round of talks will not again founder on his refusal to talk directly to the rebels fighting his regime.
South Africa’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Alfred Nzo and Deputy Minister of Defence Ronnie Kasrils arrived in Zambia on Thursday for a series of ministerial- level meetings with representatives of Kabila’s regime, the rebels, the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), the United Nations and 14 other African states involved or interested in the dispute. These include: Angola, Botswana, Burkina Faso (which is the current chair of the OAU), Chad, Gabon, Kenya, Libya, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
First prize in Lusaka would be agreement among the belligerents to a ceasefire and troop standstill. A South African diplomat said “a lot of work” had been done to achieve this outcome in the Zambian capital.
Concrete progress at ministerial level was expected to lead to a summit of the 15 heads of state and government on Saturday, to be chaired by Zambian President Frederick Chiluba.
South Africa has been trying to entrench as the main basis for discussion a peace plan for Congo drawn up by Deputy President Thabo Mbeki in September last year. The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire and troop standstill, and for the design of a programme of democratisation in Congo, leading to free and fair elections.
This programme turns on the holding of a National Reconciliation and Reconstruction Conference of the People of Congo. This conference would, among other things, set up a transitional government in Congo, representing all ethnic and political strains to see the country through to democratic elections and the drawing up of a new Constitution.
During the past week, Kabila has publicly said he is now willing to talk to the rebels. His caveat that he would, however, do so only in Congo’s capital, Kinshasa, has made it easy for the rebels to reject his invitation.
But African diplomats believe Kabila was signalling a willingness to talk, egged on particularly by Angola and Zimbabwe, his main African allies, and encouraged by signs of strains within the ranks of the rebels, who are supported mainly by Rwanda and Uganda.
Domestic military pressures on the Angolan government are growing daily, stretching government forces and threatening further Angolan military aid for Kabila. Regional security analysts say there are indications that Unita, which has tied down tens of thousands of government forces near Huambo and Kuito in the central highlands of Angola, is now preparing offensives against Caxito, 300km due east of Luanda, and Soyo, about 300km north of the Angolan capital.
Zimbabwe’s treasury is being drained by its military help for Kabila, notwithstanding its claims to be receiving financial assistance from France and Libya, and free military hardware from China. Moreover, its Congo intervention is proving increasingly unpopular among Zimbabweans.
Reports from eastern Congo, much of which is now occupied by the rebels, suggest strains have been developing between the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) – the main rebel body backed mainly by Rwanda- and a smaller rebel group gathered around Jean-Pierre Bemba, once loyal to Mobutu Sese Seko, the deposed and deceased former leader of Zaire, as the Democratic Republic of Congo was formerly known.
Bemba, based in the northern Congo province of Equateur, has been receiving significant support from Uganda. There are also reports of tensions within the main RCD group, which is a broad coalition drawing together a number of strains of opposition to Kabila and his predecessor, Mobutu.