David Shapshak
The Cabinet has discussed the possibility of deploying the army at the end of the year in anticipation of possible chaos stemming from the year 2000 computer problem (Y2K), says Minister of Posts, Telecommunications and Broadcasting Jay Naidoo.
“I have discussed with the Cabinet the possibility of mobilising the security services in terms of maintaining law and order,” Naidoo said this week. “That decision will be finalised in the next few months.”
Naidoo said he hoped people would not resort to stockpiling food and other supplies as they did before the 1994 elections, as this “quite seriously could jeopardise food supply. There’s also a serious danger of people withdrawing money and putting it under their mattresses. The United States, for example, is printing extra money.”
But, he says, there is no need to panic about safety or other concerns arising from the computer crash that could occur when the date changes over at midnight on December 31 1999.
Naidoo says South Africa is among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of preparation for the new millennium. The country is expected to be between 65% to 70% compliant and 87 critical systems which the government has identified as controlling essential services will be close to readiness. Currently South Africa is 24,3% ready.
But, says Naidoo, the majority of people may only experience minor disruptions in essential services. “We are now in the phase of contingency planning, on domestic, regional, international level. The country’s readiness programme is on track,” he says.
“Some key areas that the government is focusing on include ensuring local authorities, provincial governments and regional international trade issues, especially financial transactions, experience no disruption. The same applies to important services supplied by utilities in water, electricity and telecommunications, as well as services handled by the government, such as social services.”
Government departments and state-owned companies – which include Eskom, Transnet and Telkom – are 30% ready, while the finance sector – the most advanced in terms of Y2K readiness – is almost 50% compliant. Next week the South African Reserve Bank will host a regional conference on Y2K conformity in Africa for financial institutions.
However, 50 of the country’s 843 local authorities were considered at crisis point because they have no programme, no plans and no budget allocated to Y2K.
“In terms of risk management, the government will conduct closer monitoring of Y2K compliance in various sectors, appoint a disaster management team, with the objective of drafting contingency plans based on the actual situation rather than projected forecasts,” says Naidoo.
But Africa remains a dark horse, with very few statistics available for the continent’s state of readiness. Topping most people’s concerns is how this will affect airline navigation systems and flights over Africa.
“South African Airways is aware that a number of airlines are grounding their fleets over Africa and Asia,” Naidoo says. “The reality is a number of countries haven’t been made ready. This is also because of conflicts. The air traffic systems of some may collapse.”
South African Airways representative Leon Els says the airline would be compliant, while the other airlines on the continent varied between 40% and 70% compliancy.
The National Year 2000 Decision Centre – which the government set up last year to monitor levels of Y2K compliance and raise awareness – is working with the International Telecommunications Union Y2K Task Force, the Southern African Development Community Y2K Regional Conference and the United Nations Y2K Global Summit.