For some, Nigeria’s election is merely a merry-go-round of the same people responsible for the country’s problems, reports Chris McGreal from Lagos
The party of former military ruler General Olusegun Obasanjo has won Nigeria’s parliamentary elections. But a low turnout in Lagos and other major cities testified to widespread scepticism about whether the National Assembly ballot last weekend, and the presidential election due on Saturday, will really bring an end to 15 years of military rule.
Obasanjo is favoured to win the presidential race against his only rival, Chief Olu Falae.
Many Nigerians view the election as a merry-go-round of the same soldiers and politicians responsible for the country’s problems today. Obasanjo ruled Nigeria in the late Seventies before ceding power to an elected civilian government which was subsequently overthrown by the army. Falae is a former finance minister in a military government.
While Obasanjo is now technically a civilian, he has powerful support among other retired generals, the army’s present top brass and the cluster of politicians who worked with the military in power.
The present regime under General Abdulsalami Abubakar has rigorously controlled the election and banned independent candidates. The military is refusing to publish the new Constitution which will govern the civilian administration. Critics say the army is waiting to ensure its man wins the election before distributing power.
Sola Akinyede, a political adviser to a former vice-president and Cabinet ministers, argues that the election is merely a continuation of military rule by other means. “Military rule is outdated and they recognise that, so the next step is to put in a military man in the garb of a civilian. Departing military regimes have perfected a strategy of covering their tracks by orchestrating the emergence of friendly successors and surrogates. Such graceful exits permit the next generation of generals to stage comebacks against tainted civilian politicians,” he said.
Obasanjo’s supporters argue he is as entitled as any other Nigerian to run for the presidency. They point to George Washington and Dwight Eisenhower as generals who became presidents. “Eisenhower never planned a coup. He was never a military dictator,” said Akinyede.
The retired military brass makes no secret of its backing for Obasanjo, but one name stands out – Ibrahim Babangida, the general who overturned the result of Nigeria’s last presidential election in 1993. The winner, Moshood Abiola, died in prison last year.
Babangida is still unpopular enough with the wider public to know that he could not win an election on his own. But he accumulated a vast fortune during his years in power which is helping to bankroll Obasanjo by buying support at the nomination convention and among community leaders across the country.
In a tell-tale interview last year, Babangida said the ideal presidential candidate would be one with “an understanding of the military – so we could do business with him”.
Obasanjo has chosen a running mate who reinforces the backing of the military establishment. Abubakar Atiku was the right- hand man of General Shehu Yar’Adua, who also died in prison last year after being convicted of a coup plot. Yar’Adua served as Obasanjo’s vice-president two decades ago. In the 1980s he rose to head a powerful group of military men and politicians with considerable financial muscle.
Although Yar’Adua is dead, his political machine remains powerful and under the control of Obasanjo’s new running mate.
Opinion is divided over what the army hopes to achieve by putting Obasanjo back into power. Some believe the military hierarchy wants him to provide cover for a graceful retreat. Others argue that Babangida is laying the ground to run for president next time.
Akinyede says the military hierarchy has a lot to protect and cannot afford a president who might probe the army’s past or overly restrict its interests in the future.
“The leadership of the Nigerian military, both retired and serving, is the richest group of people in the country. They own banks, shipping companies and farm lands. The net worth of these gentlemen is grossly out of proportion to their legitimate income. They are not going to let anyone threaten that,” he said.
The army has relied on ethnic, regional and religious divisions to maintain its grip on power for all but 10 of the years since independence in 1960. But the willingness of so many civilian politicians to work with the military was crucial in perpetuating its power.
After the 1993 election was annulled, Abiola’s running mate, Baba Gana Kingebe, joined the new dictatorship as foreign minister. He was not alone.
A leading pro-democracy campaigner became justice minister and the proprietor of Nigeria’s best independent newspaper was appointed interior minister. Both eventually fell foul of Abacha’s brutal rule but their credibility was severely compromised. Hundreds of others who once pledged loyalty to Abiola served the military in various ways.
The British Minister for Africa, Tony Lloyd, wrote an open letter to Nigerians last week.
“If the millions of eligible voters do vote, Nigeria will have a truly representative government accountable to its people,” he said.
Nigerians are more sceptical.