Makhosini Nkosi
Gauteng looks set to have a coalition government formed by the ruling African National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom Party if the ANC fails to win an absolute majority in the province in the June elections.
Latest opinion polls suggest the ANC may achieve only 48% of the votes in Gauteng, which is less than it needs to comfortably form its own government.
A poor showing by the ANC could also see opposition parties electing their own premier and constituting a coalition government of minority parties.
Inviting the IFP into a coalition would be a strategic move on the part of the ANC that would give both parties a clear majority.
There were fears last year within the ANC at both national and provincial level that the party could lose a second chance at governing South Africa’s richest province. The ANC then produced a document that referred to Gauteng as “the marginal province”.
Already the ANC has entered into a form of co-operation with the IFP in Gauteng. A committee has been made up of 10 members from each party, with the intention of easing possible tensions between the ANC and the IFP and ensuring that elections run smoothly in the province.
The committee, which is co-chaired by outgoing premier and Gauteng ANC chair Mathole Motshekga and provincial IFP leader Themba Khoza, also addresses the issue of possible no-go areas previously affected by political tensions between the two parties.
The IFP and the ANC are currently partners in the government of national unity and the government of provincial unity in KwaZulu- Natal.
Gauteng ANC representative Ned Kekana says the issue of the formation of a provincial government will only be looked at after the elections. However, he says a coalition government is not on the cards.
“Unlike other political parties, the ANC has put up a positive campaign which brings hope to the people of South Africa. All other parties are running negative campaigns”, he says. “We therefore don’t see any possible partner among the opposition parties. The ANC is certainly going to emerge as the government after the elections. We have proved that we can govern Gauteng effectively.”
Kekana concedes that the ANC has achieved a “healthy working relationship” with the IFP that will see both parties sharing the stage at a rally to be held in Katlehong on the East Rand. A launch of a memorial site for victims of the political violence of the early 1990s is also in the pipeline. ANC and IFP presidents Thabo Mbeki and Mangosuthu Buthelezi are to be special guests at the launch.
While the nomination of outgoing Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) secretary general Mbhazima Shilowa as the ANC’s premier candidate has improved the party’s chances at the polls, this could be neutralised by the emergence of new parties that will contest the election in Gauteng.
Parties which could win a slice of the votes in the province include the United Democratic Movement, Louis Luyt’s Federal Alliance and the Azanian People’s Organisation.
Many observers believe the UDM could potentially erode ANC support. The UDM enjoys support in squatter camps dominated by Xhosa-speaking migrant workers from the former Transkei. The party is also making inroads in ANC constituencies in the West Rand mines.
While the ANC is by far the most popular party in Gauteng, its support does not seem to come near the 58% mark it achieved in the 1994 election.
Insiders say Shilowa’s deployment by the ANC in the province was aimed at attracting the votes of the workers. He enjoys unparalleled support among Cosatu-affiliated workers.
However, the possibility of a coalition government of smaller parties seems unlikely, with the opinion polls placing the Democratic Party at 12% ahead of the current opposition, the New National Party, at 6%.
The two parties have had an acrimonious relationship for the past few months, which could make any coalition between them unworkable. A government of more than five parties could also be extremely difficult to maintain, given that the Constitution allows a maximum of 10 portfolios in the provincial executive council.
Despite having the highest percentage of registered voters among other provinces, 20% of voters in Gauteng remain undecided. The poll results could still go either way, with the issues of crime and joblessness topping the priority list of most Gauteng voters.
While most Gauteng citizens approve of President Nelson Mandela’s government, it fares dismally – according to surveys – on the issue of crime, and opposition parties have taken advantage of the perceived failure.
Mbeki has lately been focusing on the crime issue in his campaign speeches. Some ANC leaders – especially women’s league president Winnie Madikizela-Mandela – have been fuelling speculation that under Mbeki’s rule, crime will be handled with greater resolve by the government.