With only two ministers expected to retain their positions, speculation about the look of the new Cabinet is growing, writes Howard Barrell
Speculation is increasing in political circles over the composition of Thabo Mbeki’s first Cabinet after the elections on June 2.
Most attention is focused on who will become deputy president and who will take over the portfolios of defence, and safety and security.
Conventional wisdom has it that Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel and Minister of Trade and Industry Alec Erwin are likely to remain in their current posts. Both are close Mbeki allies, have performed well and have won the confidence of the financial markets and business community. They would provide Mbeki with a solid base for the awkward decisions that may need to be made later this year. But most other portfolios are thought to be up for grabs.
Sydney Mufamadi is understood to want an end to his unhappy tenure at safety and security. The name most frequently mentioned as his successor is Steve Tshwete, currently at sport and recreation, a portfolio likely to be included under a major ministry such as education after the elections. But many observers believe Tshwete would be a poor fit for a ministry which patently needs a good communicator.
This consideration has prompted the pundits to point to Patrick “Terror” Lekota as a possible future minister of safety and security. He has sat out his exile as chair of the National Council of Provinces (NCOP) with dignity after being removed as premier of the Free State in 1996.
Though no ally of Mbeki’s in the African National Congress, Lekota is an able politician, has helped restore relative peace in Richmond and is a talented communicator. The portfolio may also be the kind of poisoned chalice that would make it easy for Mbeki to get rid of him at any moment in the future.
Mufamadi is a hot tip for foreign affairs in place of the retiring Alfred Nzo. Mbeki has involved Mufamadi in trying to resolve aspects of the conflicts in both Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo, perhaps as preparation to succeed Nzo.
But there are strong voices raised in favour of Nzo’s deputy, Aziz Pahad, whose abilities, some say, have been obscured by having to do both his own and Nzo’s jobs for much of the past five years. Pahad also has the advantage of being one of Mbeki’s oldest and closest friends.
Two names are mentioned repeatedly for defence: Jacob Zuma, deputy president of the ruling party, and Jeff Radebe, minister of public works. Both men have backgrounds in the ANC’s former military wing, Umkhonto weSizwe.
Mbeki is said not to want Zuma, with whom he has an erratic relationship, as deputy president of the country as well. Zuma’s ex-wife, Minister of Health Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, is considered a more likely deputy president of the country – as is, notwithstanding the coy denials, Inkatha Freedom Party president and Minister of Home Affairs Mangosuthu Buthelezi. Dlamini- Zuma is also a lot closer to Mbeki than her former husband is.
Radebe has proved a reliable minister of public works who gets on with the job, is an Mbeki loyalist despite being a senior member of the South African Communist Party, and is said to be due for promotion.
Although ill, Kader Asmal is being enthusiastically touted to take over education from the retiring Sibusiso Bengu. Asmal, who has been an outstanding success at water affairs, would be a perfect fit at education, which many who know it suggest desperately needs the mixture of vision, attention to detail and willingness to bully civil servants relentlessly with which Asmal is widely credited.
Mbeki’s office is also understood to have looked beyond the ranks of MPs for a suitable education minister. The name of Dr Mamphele Ramphele, vice-chancellor of the University of Cape Town, is often mentioned, although she has told friends she intends completing her contract at the institution which still has two years to run. The Constitution allows for two members of the Cabinet who are not members of Parliament.
A further name mentioned for education is that of Naledi Pandor, who has emerged as one of Parliament’s ablest members. Pandor’s last position was as deputy chair under Lekota in the NCOP. Perhaps significantly, she is now on the ANC’s list for the National Assembly.
But Pandor is also favourite to take over from the current Speaker of the National Assembly, Frene Ginwala, when she eventually goes. Ginwala is not expected to get a Cabinet portfolio, and is thought likely to remain as speaker for a further few years.
Another focus of interest is who will take Gill Marcus’s place as deputy minister of finance following her surprising departure for the Reserve Bank. Marcus, who gets most of the credit for providing the political push behind the massive improvement in collections by the South African Revenue Service, had been expected to get a full Cabinet position.
Two favourites for deputy at finance are Mandisi Mpahlwa, chair of the National Assembly’s finance committee, and Joel Netshitenzhe, probably the ANC’s best mind after Mbeki and retiring Minister of Transport Mac Maharaj. Netshitenzhe is a member of Mbeki’s kitchen cabinet and the party’s national working committee, and is currently head of the Government Communication and Information Service.
If performance – or rather lack of it – is a serious criterion in Mbeki’s Cabinet- making, many observers agree that Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi at welfare and population development, Stella Sigcau at public enterprises and Sankie Mthembi-Mahanyele at housing are likely to be looking for alternative employment in mid-June.
Among deputy ministers, the outstanding failures are usually identified as Brigitte Mabandla at arts, culture, science and technology and Joe Nhlanhla at intelligence services. The ineptitude of Nhlanhla’s performance in a debate in the Assembly earlier this year nearly unleashed a rebellion in the ANC caucus.