Nigeria’s transition to democracy will come full circle on Saturday. Chris McGreal reports
Nigeria’s first elected president in two decades will be sworn in on Saturday to grapple with a plundered treasury, decaying infrastructure and unrest in the oil fields, while wondering if there’s a soldier waiting to take his job.
President Nelson Mandela is among the heads of state who will attend General Olusegun Obasanjo’s inauguration. The passing of the baton in South Africa is in stark contrast to the handover in Nigeria.
South Africa’s young democracy is already well rooted. Nigeria’s could hardly be more fragile. Obasanjo – who will be only the third civilian president since independence in 1960 – will be sworn into office with the army staring over his shoulder. Yet Nigeria’s revival is as essential to the continent’s rebirth as South Africa’s continued stability.
Nigeria has slipped far down the list of developing nations, despite its vast oil reserves. It is on a par with some of the world’s poorest countries in the provision of education and health care, and in the rate of premature deaths. The United Nations places Nigeria 142nd out of 174 countries on its human development index.
“Every aspect of Nigerian life is crying for attention, including water, electricity and corruption,” Obasanjo said this week.
On Wednesday, Nigeria’s outgoing military ruler, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, told other members of his regime that theirs should be the last military government.
“I wish to remind you that military intervention in government is no longer fashionable,” he said, according to a military communiqu. “I therefore urge your unalloyed support to the incoming civilian administration and ensure you play your traditional role of defending the country.”
The omens are mixed.
The military embarked on a massive spending spree earlier this year. Foreign reserves have plummeted to $3-billion, less than half their level six months ago, as the army awarded hundreds of inflated contracts to firms controlled or partially owned by high- ranking soldiers, and contracts for lucrative oil exploration sites in similar circumstances.
Officials with the incoming administration warn that if Abubakar and his colleagues in the ruling military council seriously intended to ensure strong civilian government they would have protected the reserves which are vital to economic revival.
Some of the army’s most ardent critics suspect that the soldiers are laying the ground for another coup. Economic chaos and public discontent have long provided the potent brew in which the military is cheered back into power. Yet most Nigerians are so sick of army rule that Obasanjo’s administration will have to fail badly for them to welcome a return of the soldiers.
Obasanjo has never publicly stated why he sought the presidency again. His supporters say he believes he is the only man capable of resurrecting Nigeria. Cynics say he is seeking to further enhance his international standing.
An early test of Obasanjo’s promises of good governance will be the extent to which he is prepared to tackle pervasive corruption. It will also be his most difficult task.
Many of those elected on Obasanjo’s coat- tails to Parliament and regional government clearly have not changed their spots. Some already appear more than willing to continue the established system of kickbacks and largesse. Breaking that habit while not alienating Parliament will prove difficult. And the president-elect is not even talking about hunting down the billions of dollars stolen by his predecessors.
Obasanjo will also have deal with a potentially explosive problem – growing instability in the oil-rich Niger delta where most of the nation’s wealth is produced. More and more communities are demanding cash from the oil companies which have exploited the delta for decades with almost no benefit to those who live there. With sabotage and hostage-taking on the rise, there is a potential for greater conflict which could have a serious impact on oil production and revenues.
But ultimately it is the economy that matters to the bulk of impoverished Nigerians, and the new administration is already looking overseas for crucial help. Obasanjo’s inauguration opens the way to better relations with the West after five years as a semi-pariah. Nigeria is to be readmitted to the Commonwealth on Saturday. It was suspended from the organisation following the execution of the Ogoni rights activist, Ken Saro-Wiwa.
The West wants a stable Nigeria as an economic engine for West Africa and to continue its role as regional peacekeeper in Sierra Leone. In return, Abuja wants debt relief. Britain is leading the charge to call a moratorium on the $2,5-billion a year Nigeria is supposed to pay to service its debt. If Obasanjo proves an able president, the debt may even be written off. But it will probably remain on the books for now as a stick with which to beat any attempt by the army to take back power.
Obasanjo was himself a military ruler, for three years from 1976 , although he has had his own problems with the army. General Sani Abacha, the most thuggish of Nigeria’s recent dictators, imprisoned Obasanjo for allegedly plotting to overthrow his regime.
Twenty years ago Obasanjo ruled largely by decree. Now he has to take account of an elected Parliament. In the 1970s, Obasanjo was keen on centralised economic control and high-cost government projects. Now he will be subject to International Monetary Fund agreements on government spending and privatisation.
But unlike most of Nigeria’s recent military rulers, Obasanjo has a wide range of international contacts and friends – from former United States president Jimmy Carter to Margaret Thatcher – willing to provide guidance.
Many Nigerians view the incoming government less as democratic than an interim measure on the road to democracy. February’s presidential and parliamentary elections were deeply flawed. The ballot was tainted by widespread fraud.
But Clement Nwankwo, head of the pro- democracy Transition Monitoring Group, argues that although the elections were imperfect they were nonetheless an important step toward democracy.
“I don’t think anyone really thinks the government that is coming in is a democratic government. It is a transitional government,” he said. “The institutions need to be made to work. There has to be a Constitution that provides for separation of powers. The watchdogs have to perform their role. The judiciary has to be given the independence to do its job. There is a long way to go yet.”
The desperation of Nigerians for change was demonstrated by an incident earlier this month when a false rumour spread that Obasanjo had died.
The young street thugs in Lagos, known as “area boys”, rioted. Only a swift appearance on television by the president- elect – declaring “I am alive and will be alive to rule Nigeria” – quelled the violence.