Troop movements on both sides of the Congo conflict belie the peace talks in Lusaka, writes Ivor Powell
A massive showdown that could determine the course of the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo is looming in the diamond-rich region in the centre of the country.
Regional talks in Lusaka this weekend aimed at securing a ceasefire in the conflict appear to be doomed by the battle-readiness of both sides. Rebel forces are almost at the gates of the regional capital, Mbuji- Mayi.
Security sources told the Mail & Guardian that, even as the Angolan government was dispatching a relatively low-level delegation to Lusaka to take part in Saturday’s talks, it was also sending an estimated 1 000 troops to shore up the defence of Mbuji-Mayi.
According to analyst Jakkie Potgieter from the Institute for Security Studies, unconfirmed reports suggested the troop contingent was made up of three battalions of battle-hardened Angolan soldiers – including members of the country’s special forces elite. Two were reported to have been dispatched to Mbuji-Mayi, the third to the Ghabadolite area nearby.
Potgieter said although the deployment of the Angolans had not yet been officially confirmed by sources inside that country, security observers in Lusaka had independently noted Angolan troop movements in the area.
The Angolan troops are moving to secure Mbuji-Mayi on behalf of Congo strongman Laurent Kabila, as troops of the Congolese rebel alliance and their Rwandan allies are reported to be only 110km from diamond mines in the area. This follows the capture of nearby Lusombo where, this week, rebel troops inflicted heavy losses on Kabila’s forces and those of his allies.
Zimbabwean and Namibian troops suffered heavy losses as rebel soldiers, creeping through the circle of their guns, launched a major offensive. Kabila’s troops are believed to have turned tail and fled.
Numbers estimated in the hundreds of the Zimbabwean force are still unaccounted for, after being driven into the surrounding bush. Most survivors, however, have joined up with Kabila’s forces in a last-ditch defence of Mbuji-Mayi.
Having alienated many of the mining companies who originally negotiated contracts with this regime, Kabila is dependent on the income from the government-controlled mines at Mbuji-Mayi, as was the late Zairean dictator, Mobuto Sese Seko.
Mbuji-Mayi is the main centre of industrial diamond mining. Mining company MIBA (20% owned by Belgian Sibeka) produced about $100-million last year in income for Kabila’s government, out of a total of $616,5-million in diamond exports. At the moment, the government mines are guarded by Angolan troops, who have been dug in since late last year.
Congo’s other major diamond centre at Kisangani is in rebel hands, and is being brought under control by Ugandan troops. Kisangani is the Ugandan headquarters inside Congo, and the centre of the rebellion.
The decisiveness of the looming showdown at Mbuji-Mayi is indicated by the fact that the Angolan government has also suffered severe setbacks in its war with Unita at home. While it is not in any position to force an outright victory, Unita forces have secured much of the country and occupy positions not far distant from the capital, Luanda.
The Angolan government entered the war on the side of Kabila largely in order to act against Unita enclaves in the south-west of Congo. The government is understood to be opposed to any ceasefire that leaves a government friendly to Unita in place in the region.
On Wednesday night, as the Angolan reinforcements were said to be moving in, Kabila and his major ally, Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe, were reported to have issued a statement indicating their belief that “the time was not yet right” for concluding a ceasefire agreement in Congo.
Rwandan delegates to the Lusaka talks, as well as rebel representatives, have charged that Kabila never had any intention of signing the ceasefire accord, accusing him instead of drawing out the process in order to bolster his defence of Mbuji-Mayi.
Sources close to the process have also questioned the commitment of the rebels to the peace talks. Rwandan and Ugandan- sponsored rebel forces are also reported to have been building up in the diamond-rich Kasai area in advance of the expected showdown. Rwandans and rebels say they have Mbuji-Mayi surrounded, and have already begun to infiltrate the city ahead of a final push.
Monitoring agency Marek Enterprise reports that around June 22, leaders in the Rwanda/rebel coalition left Lusaka, where they had been negotiating terms for the proposed ceasefire agreement in advance of the Saturday meeting, flying into Kigali on their way to rebel headquarters in Goma.
June 22 was the date set by rebels in an earlier ultimatum for Kabila to accept their terms for peace or face military defeat.
The M&G understands the Tutsi-led Rwandans and their Ugandan ally, President Yoweri Museveni, are opposed to any ceasefire agreement which does not at the same time bind Hutu interahamwe militias and other anti-Ugandan rebel forces operating from and being given refuge in Congo.
Rwanda and Uganda have justified their sponsoring of Congo’s rebels as a response to ongoing genocide against Tutsis in Congo.
By late Thursday morning there was still uncertainty about whether or not a much- vaunted South African delegation – including President Thabo Mbeki, Minister of Defence Terror Lekota and Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Zuma – would be attending the talks. Mbeki was reported to have indicated he would only be going to the talks if and when a ceasefire agreement had already been signed by all parties concerned.
That is looking increasingly unlikely. Though mooted as a regional summit to finally end the Congo war, the talks hosted by Zambian President Frederick Chiluba might have short-circuited even before they began.