Michael Power
South Africa is stuck in first Gear. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is negligible, unemployment is rising and there is little evidence of a fall in its GINI coefficient, that all-too-revealing measure of South Africa’s income inequality.
As a foreigner newly arrived on your doorstep, I feel somewhat churlish in pointing all this out. How bad-mannered of me to say that the centrepiece of the post- 1994 era simply is not delivering the goods. But it must be said, if only because the growth, employment and redistribution (Gear) strategy is in danger of becoming the sacred cow of the South African scene, a fate it patently does not deserve.
No one could seriously disagree with the laudable aims of Gear – such a three- pronged attack was imperative if the laagers of the apartheid era were to be overwhelmed and a more productive, more equitable economic landscape were to result.
So what is the problem?
The simple fact is that not only is the South African car stuck in first Gear, it is also trying to accelerate with the handbrake on. In other words, the monetary policy is ridiculously tight. Real interest rates remain at near-record highs – is it any wonder that net private business investment, the yeast of GDP growth, is at near-record lows? In the United States, the real corporate hurdle rate used by business is about 3%; in South Africa, it averages 13% – no prizes for guessing which economy is growing faster. And given this high cost of capital, is it any wonder that Anglo American, Old Mutual and South African Breweries have undertaken a great trek north to London?
The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy is, on the pretext of squeezing inflation out of the system, squeezing the life out of the economy. Verkrampte (conservative) monetarism has helped stall Germany’s economy – surely the high priests of Pretoria cannot still believe in the fatwas from Frankfurt?
It is increasingly recognised that not only most politicians but also many central bankers, especially those of Continental Europe, know virtually nothing about what makes a business tick. Their defence is usually: “We must look after the macro level; the micro level can fend for itself.” Nothing could be more misguided. The macro house is built of micro bricks, not vice versa. What harms the corporate sector before long undermines the country.
Of course, there are macro levers that need to be pulled when consumption gets out of hand or buttons pushed when serious inflation threatens. Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan’s quip that the job of a central banker is “to take away the punchbowl when the party gets too loud” still stands. But to run a monetary policy which simply destroys the raison d’tre for investing has got to be the surest way of bringing the national house down. One of the lessons of globalisation is that a country must look after its corporate champions, else they wither in the harsh winds of competition – or go elsewhere.
The double irony in South Africa’s case is that the usual villain of the piece – the government – has done superbly well in the circumstances. For their pains, the fiscus received rather a large bill for the misguided defence of the rand last year and has had to pay higher interest costs on government debt than it should have done. And yet five years ago we all feared that the political treasury would run amok in its spending, but then derived some comfort from knowing that at least the independent central bank was in safe hands … How wrong we all were.
So is there another central bank doctrine the new governor of the South African Reserve Bank should consider emulating? Indeed, there is. Which primary goods exporter suffered the same collapse in export prices as South Africa did in 1998 and yet finished the year with the highest GDP growth rate in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development? Whose inflation rate is only 1,2% over the past 12 months? Whose unemployment rate is down to 7,5%? The answer is Australia.
And what did the Aussies do differently? They sidestepped that juggernaut of a trade shock, barely defending the Aussie dollar with interest rate hikes or heavy-handed market intervention. True, they have a ballooning current account deficit and their currency has probably rebounded too far, but a fall in the latter will soon lead to a fall in the former.
The essential lesson is clear: if you are hit by a severe deterioration in your terms of trade, don’t hijack the domestic economy with interest rate hikes, either to avoid imported inflation or to protect the value of your currency. Why? Your most important corporations, your exporters, will be under enough pressure as it is without having to cope with a sharp rise in their cost of capital as well.
So Tito Mboweni, may I respectfully suggest that you ignore the fatwas of Frankfurt and study instead the canons of Canberra before you take over in August? Those Aussies can do more than play decent cricket.
Michael Power was previously a fund manager at Barings Asset Management in London