TONY LEON: Democratic Party (official opposition)
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SEATS: 38
Grade: B-
His Tonyness was hardly likely in Parliament to be able to match his performance in the election, and he has not. This is in part a price of success. Increasing your party’s National Assembly representation fivefold in a single election takes energy – energy Leon has since had to recover. The Dandelion of the North has had to devise strategies to nullify the worst effects of a few obstacles thrown in his path by the ruling party. But he will be back soon, no doubt, driving the African National Congress up the wall.
Prognosis: The DP is growing, thanks to its blossoming right-wing “Fight Back” support. Expect to see further advances in local elections. But can a chihuahua ever become a Rottweiler?
MANGOSUTHU BUTHELEZI: Inkatha Freedom Party
SEATS: 34
Grade: D-
Is the IFP an opposition party? Only just. Co-opted into the government as a limp partner, the IFP has all but abandoned its role as a separate entity, except in KwaZulu-Natal. Senior members speak privately of a tired Buthelezi letting the party “die quietly”. If Buthelezi joined the ANC the end of the IFP’s farcical status would come as a relief to many. Yet Buthelezi retains his (largely ethnic) base in KwaZulu-Natal and this has ensured he remains a national political actor. Give him his due for that, at least.
Prognosis: Pity there is one.
MARTHINUS VAN SCHALKWYK: New National Party
SEATS: 28
Grade: E
Poor Marthinus. His kortbroek has shrunk into a Speedo in view of the rate at which his party is declining. He is a nice guy, but he is swimming against one of history’s great currents. Van Schalkwyk and his party have run out of ideas and lost their will to fight. If Van Schalkwyk and other national leaders talk seriously about joining up with the ANC, though, they will lose half their support to the DP. Talk seriously of joining up with the DP and they might lose about a third of their support to the ANC.
Prognosis: The DP know he’s up the creek without a paddle or a Speedo. The local government elections could be the crunch.
BANTU HOLOMISA: United Democratic Movement
SEATS: 14
Grade: E
The UDM seems to be dissolving before our eyes, with members heading in any direction as long as it is out of the UDM. Holomisa is making no impression as a political leader. The link-up with Louis Luyt’s Federal Alliance in Parliament showed little judgment.
Prognosis: Should take some hints on his drive, and not on his caddying, from Ernie Els.
KENNETH MESHOE: African Christian Democratic Party
SEATS: 6
Grade: C
Reverend Ken is an innocuous political leader who is somewhat difficult to take seriously. Still, the ACDP is clearly making its presence felt. Why else would Mbeki take time out of one of his major speeches to Parliament to attack it?
Prognosis: It is unclear where it can go from a maximum of about 10 MPs. It is a very poor fit as a potential coalition partner with any party, other than Lucas Mangope’s United Christian Democratic Party.
CONSTAND VILJOEN: Freedom Front
SEATS: 3
Grade: E
The FF lost a lot of support in the election. The FFcaucus is no longer a happy family after Pieter Mulder challenged Viljoen for the leadership and lost only narrowly. Viljoen still comes across as sincere, doing what he believes is best for his people, white Afrikaners.
Prognosis: His heart does not seem to be in it anymore. It would be better for him to retire.
LUCAS MANGOPE: United Christian Democratic Party
SEATS: 3
Grade: F
Old Lucas lost a one-off opportunity to have some influence in national politics when he decided not to take up a seat in Parliament after the elections. Neither he nor the three UCDP MPs have had any impact. They did, however, collect a surprising share of the votes in the North-West, particularly in the Mafikeng area.
Prognosis: Why the ACDP and UCDP don’t link up is a mystery. Mangope’s party may then have some chance of survival.
STANLEY MOGOBA: Pan Africanist Congress
SEATS: 3
Grade: E
You have to be very brave or very stupid to try to lead the PAC. The jury is out on which of these qualities Mogoba brings to the job. But his pre-election comments about cutting off the limbs of criminals were not promising. The PAC is not a happy party. Nor is it an effective party, and it doesn’t look like it’s becoming effective.
Prognosis: Time for the chop.
LOUIS LUYT: Federal Alliance
SEATS: 2
Grade: F-
The FA is a bit like a rugby team that trains but does not really want to play, let alone get dirty or injured. It is safe but it lacks balls or even a ball. Luyt is fairly effective in Parliament’s finance committees, but that’s about where it ends – but he did go along with the ANC’s misuse of its majority to get him on to the Judicial Service Commission in place of the DP’s Douglas Gibson. The FA’s other MP, former agriculture minister Kraai van Niekerk, must be wondering why he came out of retirement from his farm in the Northern Cape.
Prognosis: Stellaland is looking for a rugby coach.
CASSIE AUCAMP: Afrikaner Eenheidsbeweging
SEATS: 1
Grade: B+
Aucamp has had no difficulty in providing himself with excellent leadership in Parliament. He has been the most pleasant surprise of the parliamentary session. He has a kind, often self-deprecating sense of humour that has won both him and his calls for sensitivity towards Afrikaner ethnic interests many friends.
Prognosis: Not sure.
AMICHAND RAJBANSI: Minority Front
SEATS: 1
Grade: F
It is amazing how the Bengal Tiger has survived politically. Why the ANC took up his offer of a “merger” is beyond comprehension. Even more astonishing is how Rajbansi managed to find as his lone MP in Parliament someone who talks as much nonsense as he does. She is Sunklavathy Rajbally. The only good thing about her presence in the National Assembly is that it means the Tiger remains confined to KwaZulu-Natal.
Prognosis: As was once said of the Raj, we will double cross that bridge when we come to it.
MOSIBUDI MANGENA: Azanian People’s Organisation
SEATS: 1
Grade: B
Like Aucamp, Mangena has been one of the stars in Parliament over the past six months. Although he can come across as dour, he has impressed with his seriousness and intelligence.
Prognosis: He has a bright future if he keeps his focus and can build, or find, a decent party.