Howard Barrell
OVER A BARREL
You are not alone if you, too, are beginning to think that Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe is a few marbles short of a full bag.
It is not a question on which we should expect our own Thabo Mbeki or his officials to comment. They are currently engaged in manoeuvres to keep Zimbabwe afloat that seem too finely balanced for them to be voicing an opinion.
But I would be telling you no secret if I divulged that a few other Southern African leaders – indeed, some members of Mugabe’s own Cabinet – have come to the conclusion that Zimbabwe’s president is losing his grip on reality.
It is an opinion also shared by some major Western powers. “Yes,” sighed a senior Western diplomat recently, “it is becoming difficult to have a sensible conversation with him.”
If there is some truth in this view, then we face a more parlous situation in our subcontinent than we may care to admit. For, not only is Central Africa tearing itself apart in a series of wars into which two of our immediate neighbours, Namibia and Zimbabwe, have ill-advisedly allowed themselves to be drawn as combatants; not only is Angola once again suffering fierce civil war; not only is Zambia being threatened with war by Angola; not only is our region’s second-largest economy and our biggest African trading partner, Zimbabwe, barely ticking over; not only are informed and usually temperate analysts warning that Zimbabwe is on the brink of blowing apart politically; but Zimbabwe is also being ruled by, so to say, a nine-dollar note.
It is a situation that calls for cool heads – and allows for what are likely to be only imperfect initiatives and solutions.
For these reasons I am not convinced Mbeki’s visit to Zimbabwe last week was a bad idea. He arrived in Harare reportedly offering economic support to our northern neighbour. The Democratic Party believes the trip was ill-judged, an attempt to “bail out one of Africa’s most notorious tinpot dictators”, an act which could be interpreted as “gross interference in the domestic politics of another country”.
Perhaps. But Zimbabwe does present Mbeki with an awkward problem. He cannot allow shortages of fuel and foreign currency and an oversupply of mismanagement and caprice to cause the economy to seize up. He knows economic collapse is an outcome which Mugabe is quite capable of visiting upon his country. Mbeki knows also that there are serious individuals at the top level of Zanu-PF, Zimbabwe’s ruling party, who are at least as alarmed as he is.
On the other hand, Mbeki cannot have too much confidence in Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) as an alternative government. It is, yes, an impressive umbrella of discontent. It combines a broad, highly disparate political base. But this breadth and the MDC’s immaturity do not promise a firm hand on the tiller if it came to power. So, to the extent that he may at some stage have to choose between the MDC and the more serious elements in the Zanu- PF’s leadership, Mbeki is unlikely automatically to favour the MDC.
No doubt, too, for his own domestic reasons, Mbeki is not keen to encourage, after the Zambian example, yet another instance in Southern Africa where a party originating in the trade union movement takes over the government of a country.
The option Mbeki appears, therefore, to be pursuing is this: offer enough help to keep Zimbabwe afloat; make sure the relevant Zimbabweans understand that this help can be made available only if the country pursues rational economic policies which, in the case of Mugabe, preclude further wastage of foreign currency and fuellll through the stupid military in-lll volvementl in the Democratic Republic of Congo; so assert South Africa’s dominance in foreign policy in the region; and so position South Africa to exercise a considerable and calming influence in any political transition that may now need to occur in Zimbabwe.
Mbeki’s visit to Harare has improved our ability to help Zimbabwe find a way out of its current mess. We have not assumed the role of regional imperialist. Rather, we are a neighbour who recognises that South Africa’s interests are best served by having a stable Zimbabwe.
Mbeki has made a subtle judgment call, rather than engage in rhetorical judgment, as the DP has done. The result is likely to show that if you’ve got Mugabe by the goolies, his heart and those marbles he has left are likely to follow.