Iden Wetherell
A senior minister in court on corruption charges, a president going for broke in an electoral contest he could well lose, the rule of law openly flouted and the country’s economy going down the tubes. It’s another week in Zimbabwe!
Only recently dismissed as pedestrian and predictable, the pace of events north of the raging Limpopo has suddenly assumed dramatic momentum as President Robert Mugabe (76) battles to retain power – literally at any cost.
His move to unleash ex-combatants of the liberation war on to productive farms to punish their white owners for helping to reject his constitutional proposals has taken the country one step closer to the economic brink.
This week’s refusal by the police to enforce court orders to evict the occupying horde of Mugabe’s supporters has now added a constitutional crisis to the economic one.
Minister of Land and Agriculture Kumbirai Kangai’s appearance in court this week, on charges of corruption involving the state-owned Grain Marketing Board, is testimony to Mugabe’s belated realisation that endemic graft at all levels of his beleaguered regime is the opposition Movement for Democratic Change’s (MDC) most effective weapon in its battle to overturn Mugabe’s parliamentary majority.
The poll is set for early next month, although, given logistical difficulties, it is likely to be postponed to mid-year. Under trade union leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s gutsy direction, the MDC proved in last month’s referendum that it is capable of tapping the deep disaffection of voters angered by eroding incomes and fuel shortages.
Mugabe’s referendum defeat was his political Stalingrad: it demonstrated he was no longer invincible and, despite an iron grip on large swathes of the media, he is clearly losing the battle for the hearts and minds of Zimbabweans.
That is a pattern he is determined to reverse. At a post-referendum meeting last month the Zanu-PF central committee identified a corrupt and deadwood leadership as its chief obstacle to re- election. Mugabe was told to clean out his Augean stable or risk defeat.
Shortly afterwards the first head rolled off the block as former minister of transport and energy Enos Chikowore took responsibility for the fuel crisis, the product of poor planning and massive corruption at the state-owned oil procurement parastatal Noczim.
Agriculture minister Kangai is the first minister to be charged with wrongdoing. Although he is one of the few survivors of Zanu-PF’s liberation war directorate of the 1970s, he could well have outlived his political usefulness – his Manicaland province voted solidly “No” to Mugabe’s constitutional draft in last month’s referendum.
While Mugabe has allowed judicial due process to apply in Kangai’s case he has prevented the police from enforcing the law on land invasions. The police have stood by as farmers have been threatened and assaulted and their produce destroyed. The Commercial Farmers Union calculates R12,5- million of tobacco has been lost. That will impact on export earnings which will mean less foreign exchange for fuel.
Economists estimate gross domestic product growth in 1999 at 1,5%, which stands in stark contrast to Mozambique’s 10%. This year there is likely to be zero growth. Per capita gross domestic product has slumped to US$439 while one-time poor relation Botswana’s stands at US$3 107.
But Mugabe doesn’t seem to care. He is going for broke, telling the rest of the world to go to hell while Zimbabwe’s economy is sacrificed on the altar of short-term electoral gain. War veterans have been searching farm compounds and assaulting the owners of MDC T-shirts. They have also prevented farmworkers from registering as voters and declared they will take the country back to war if Zanu- PF loses the election.
Last week Mugabe told people causing disunity – meaning the opposition – to “watch out because death will befall them first”.
Despite such intimidation, state-sponsored lawlessness and token sacrifices to the electoral gods, Mugabe is facing a tidal wave of popular disenchantment that could well sweep over many of the obstacles he has erected to the opposition winning seats. That may not mean victory for the MDC. Mugabe appoints 30 MPs whatever the outcome. But it does mean a sea of change in Zimbabwean politics and a determination to see old rogues go – sooner rather than later.