Gregory Mthembu-Salter
A planned meeting in Johannesburg this week of Burundi’s Hutu rebel Forces pour la dfense de la democratie (FDD) and Forces nationales de liberation (FNL) failed to materialise, prompting fears that neither party will attend peace talks in Arusha, Tanzania, next month.
Nevertheless, Nelson Mandela, who has mediated the talks since January, remains upbeat that the rebel groups will attend.
Burundi’s peace process has dragged on to little effect for almost four years, while a civil war rages in the country. A draft peace agreement was presented after the last round of multiparty talks, and Mandela hopes that a final agreement will now be reached. But this can only be achieved if the FDD and the FNL attend the talks, as without them there can be no ceasefire, and without that there is no basis for implementing an agreement.
But the FDD and FNL are reluctant to negotiate in Arusha, wanting instead bilateral talks with the Burundi government and armed forces.
Many doubt that the FDD wants to talk at all. As well as fighting in Burundi, the FDD is active in the Democratic Republic of Congo on the side of President Laurent Desir Kabila. The Lusaka peace agreement says the FDD must be forcibly disarmed by peacekeepers, leaving the FDD little incentive to abandon war for negotiations.
Mandela has pushed the Burundi government on the rebels’ demands. Earlier this month Burundi President Pierre Buyoya agreed to close the country’s regroupment camps – which forcibly detain Hutus – and to ensure that Hutus make up half of Burundi’s army. The camps have started to close, but army reform remains murky.
Confusion has arisen over whether the agreement solely concerns ethnicity or implies that the FDD and the FNL be integrated into the army.
The Burundi government says it has only agreed on ethnicity, with officials adding that 40% of the army is already Hutu. Virtually all officers are Tutsi. The rebel groups think reform means integrating their fighters into the army.
Mandela has not achieved the release of political prisoners, but the Burundi government’s position on this is shifting. Buyoya has previously claimed that there are no political prisoners, but on Tuesday the state prosecutor conceded that there were those who “might be considered” political prisoners and called for a national debate.
But such debates take time, and Mandela needs more far-reaching measures, and movement on army reform, to bring the rebels into the talks. If the rebels do not co-operate, Mandela’s initiative will be compromised, leaving bleak Burundi’s prospects for peace.