Iden Wetherell
Zimbabweans are this week treating what is officially a win for President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party in the general election as a triumph for the opposition.
Zanu-PF retained power by hanging on to 62 of the 120 elected seats in last weekend’s poll. But it lost 57 seats to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by Morgan Tsvangirai.
“It’s a victory for democracy,” said the University of Zimbabwe’s Professor Masipula Sithole. “Ultimately, it’s a defeat for Mugabe and his autocratic tendencies.”
Given Mugabe’s prerogative to pack an additional 30 appointed seats with his cronies, Zanu-PF’s position looks unassailable. But with the MDC occupying the moral high ground and the country in a palpably defiant mood it is going to be difficult for him to adopt the “business as usual” approach he is inclined to.
The size of the MDC contingent means the government has been deprived of the two- thirds majority it needs to pass constitutional amendments. While this comes too late to prevent sweeping farm confiscations it does mean Mugabe is unable to proceed with plans to introduce through the parliamentary back door proposals rejected by voters in the February referendum. These include restoration of the Senate, abolished in 1989. In principle the MDC supports the concept of a second house, but it will veto any format designed to entrench Mugabe’s autocracy.
The 76-year-old leader’s position is becoming increasingly untenable. The election result is a massive rebuff to his authority. Not only did his message on land and British imperialism fail to secure a purchase on the popular imagination, it is arguable that his strategy of violence and intimidation backfired.
While many farm workers were prevented from voting by war veterans or coerced into voting for Zanu-PF, others clearly voted against their tormentors.
In some rural seats considered safe by Zanu-PF the MDC turned in an impressive performance. In Marondera the Minister for State Security, Sydney Sekeramayi, got a shock when an unknown MDC candidate came within 63 votes of evicting him.
Although Tsvangirai failed to secure a seat for himself, this will leave him free to concentrate on his bid for the presidency in 2002, suddenly within reach.
Many of Mugabe’s erstwhile followers will now see him as a liability. While the defeat of ministerial heavyweights Emmerson Mnangagwa and Dumiso Dabengwa might have removed two potential challengers, others are bound to emerge if they smell blood.
However, the threat now comes not so much from internal plotters but an opposition tested in combat and enjoying a sense of manifest destiny.
What has changed most in Zimbabwe in recent weeks is the public mood. From being victims, people appear to have empowered themselves in order to send a message to Mugabe on his oppressive style of governance and the damage his regime has inflicted on their lives.
In addition to pointing the way forward on economic policies that attract investment and generate employment, MDC MPs will be anxious to expose corruption and misrule by Mugabe’s ministers. They are also likely to emphasise that the country’s myriad problems stem from his refusal to embrace reform rather than the international conspiracy he has been touting.
Mugabe was comforted by a congratulatory message from the African National Congress on Tuesday. And the South African parliamentary observer group’s leader Tony Yengeni massaged the bruised presidential ego by attacking the European Union’s statement that intimidation made a free and fair poll impossible.
Yengeni had already caused consternation among members of his group by endorsing the voting process as a good reflection of the popular will before the MPs had discussed it.
Following a meeting with Mugabe he denounced the EU’s report saying the EU should “allow Africans to be responsible. They should take their cue from us.”
While he conceded the death toll of 30 “cannot be part of any election process”, his grandstanding at State House was clearly designed to show solidarity with Zanu-PF.
MDC officials are privately pointing out that if Zimbabwe’s economy continues to stagger under the weight of a regime determined to embrace damaging policies the ANC will have to accept its share of the blame.