by a thread Gregory Mthembu-Salter Southern African Development Community (SADC) heads of state say they will meet in Lusaka next Monday with other signatories of the Lusaka peace accords to discuss the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo following Congolese leader Laurent Desir Kabila’s failure to attend the recent SADC summit in Windhoek. The Lusaka accords were signed by all the belligerents in the Congo conflict last year, but have repeatedly been broken by all sides since. During the summit, the heads of state kept any displeasure at Kabila’s non-attendance to themselves, but made it plain that they want Kabila at the Lusaka gathering. However, Congolese foreign minister Yerodia Abdoulaye Ndombasi, who represented Congo at the SADC summit, warned delegates that he might stand in for Kabila in Lusaka too, though he added that Kabila would probably attend “if he was alive”. Ndombasi’s comments may refer to Kabila’s apparently poor health, which is rumoured in Congo to account for why he suddenly cancelled his attendance recently at two major events in Lubumbashi, in the southern Katanga province.
Kabila’s behaviour is increasing international concern that the Congolese government has rejected the Lusaka accords. Ndombasi was said by diplomatic sources to have told a United Nations Security Council briefing on Congo on July 28 that the accords were “null and void”, and Congo’s education minister, Kamara Wa Kaikara, told a press conference in Kinshasa recently that the accords were “irrelevant”. Meanwhile, the Congolese government continues to reject the Organisation of African Unity-designated mediation of former Botswana president Sir Ketumile Masire in planned inter-Congolese political negotiations, and to block the deployment in Congo of a UN observer force (Monuc). Demonstrations against Monuc in Kinshasa, which appear to be state-orchestrated, are on the increase. Both the mediation and the UN deployment are key provisions of the Lusaka accords. Kabila himself has not publicly rejected the Lusaka accords and, in Windhoek, Ndombasi denied that his government had done so. Ndombasi did nonetheless emphasise Kabila’s concerns about their implementation. The Zimbabwean government, which has an estimated 11E000 troops fighting for Kabila in Congo, says it shares these concerns. A Zimbabwean government representative told the Mail & Guardian that although his government has a high regard for Masire, since the Congolese government does not, another mediator should be chosen. The representative said that the Zimbabwean government accepts Kabila’s position that Monuc forces should be deployed in combat zones only and not in Kinshasa, as had previously been agreed between Kabila and the UN, to avoid the impression that the capital was under foreign occupation. The Zimbabwean government representative at the same time reiterated Zimbabwe’s commitment to the Lusaka accords, stressing that once Monuc troops arrive in Congo, Zimbabwean troops will leave. The representative rejected the suggestion that Kabila was preventing the Monuc deployment to prevent the Zimbabwean troops leaving, but it is clear that, in the absence of a capable Congolese army, these soldiers are Kabila’s main guarantee of holding on to power. Kabila’s other main reason for stalling the Lusaka process is that the war is going well for him, almost for the first time since it started in 1998. Congolese forces are finally making headway against the Ugandan-backed Mouvement pour la libration du Congo (MLC) around Mbandaka, north of Kinshasa. Congolese troops have recaptured several towns from the MLC and have extended their presence as far as Libenge, 75km from Bangui in the Central African Republic. Furthermore, following the apparent defeat of the Ugandan People’s Defence Force by the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA) in Kisangani in June, Uganda says it will withdraw 4E000 troops from Congo. Last week the first few hundred went home, many with Congolese wives in tow. Rwanda has withdrawn 1E000 troops. They have also proposed to withdraw their troops to 200km of all front lines to allow UN observers to come in. UN officials are quoted as giving this “a cautious welcome”. In the uneasy buffer zones between Rwandan and Ugandan-held territories in eastern Congo, Rwandan interahamwe militia, who are in alliance with Kabila, are making increasingly daring attacks, forcing thousands of refugees into Uganda. At the same time Congolese government forces have resumed their attack on the strategic rebel-held eastern town of Ikela, apparently capturing hundreds of rebel troops.
These encouraging stories from the front line are of little comfort to Kinshasa’s hard-pressed residents, among whom a recent UN survey found food security to be “very critical”. The survey said only 10% of Kinshasa’s households have three daily meals and that available food in the capital covers only 60% of total needs. Meanwhile, Kabila spends most of his time in Lubumbashi, which is much better supplied, and where the government- appointed Parliament was due to start work this week, though the inauguration was postponed on Monday, apparently due to logistical difficulties, to August 21. The UN Security Council said this week that Congo was its “biggest challenge”. Council members still want Monuc deployed in Kinshasa and still support Masire, but the secretariat now says it wants improved relations with the Congolese government. Given Kabila’s current mood, this will not be easy and in the meantime no further UN troops will be deployed in Congo. Unless SADC leaders secure a significant breakthrough in Lusaka next week, the chances of the Lusaka accords crumbling further, and Congo’s war intensifying, seem disturbingly promising. On Thursday heavy fighting was apparently going on between the Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie (RCD) and RPA and Congolese government troops at Pepa, near Lake Tanganyika in Katanga. It appears to be another Congolese government breach of the Lusaka accords. The RCD says Kabila regards the Lusaka accords as dead.