Ted Leggett a second look Minister of Safety and Security Steve Tshwete has blamed the Islamic group People against Gangsterism and Drugs (Pagad) for the long string of bombings that has plagued Cape Town. “I am absolutely convinced it is Pagad,” he has said, alleging that the attacks are part of an ideological campaign to bring down the “Satanic” South African state. But this allegation does not ring true for a number of reasons. The nature of the attacks and the targets chosen are not indicative of a well-planned revolutionary campaign. Politically motivated detonations could conceivably have one of two possible objectives: they could be designed to seriously disable the government, or they could be intended to draw attention and sympathy to the cause. If Pagad truly wanted to overthrow the government, it is doing a lousy job of it. Rather than setting off bombs in front of trendy nightclubs and police stations, real revolutionaries would be attacking more significant targets. This would not be terribly difficult in South Africa today. As one vagrant recently demonstrated, it is no great feat to walk straight into the president’s home and make yourself a sandwich.
If they were truly trying to generate “terror”, the body count is pathetically low – thus far, there have been only three deaths in 18 bomb blasts. It rather looks like whoever is setting these bombs is going out of their way to avoid taking life.
The lone Golden Arrow sniper killed more people and did more damage to the essential workings of the Western Cape in a few weeks than this supposed campaign to make the state ungovernable by scaring tourists has done in years. If anything, the bombings look more like the work of an extortion racket, warning businesses and corrupt cops that they speak out at their peril. If, on the other hand, Pagad leaders were using these attacks to raise their political profile and get their message out, wouldn’t it make sense for them to be a little more articulate about their demands and a little less quick to condemn the attacks? When Pagad first emerged, polls indicated it had widespread grassroots support. The bombings have changed all that. In fact, a gangster trying to discredit a Muslim vigilante group would be hard pressed to find a better tactic than to sling a few pipe bombs and let popular prejudice do the rest. And if one were on trial under a magistrate who was also responsible for Pagad cases, one could take out the offending official confident that police would go scurrying down the wrong rabbit hole. It is the simple convenience of blaming Pagad that makes the allegation most suspect. From a foreign-affairs perspective, pointing the finger at Muslim extremists is even better than pointing the finger at drugs – the support and sympathy of the West is instantly won. And by framing the matter as political instead of criminal, the issue is removed from the realm of ordinary policing. Gone are the mundane tasks of cleaning out corrupt police and fighting teenage criminal entrepreneurs. We have ourselves a war.
It is here that the potential of this allegation becomes especially frightening. The recent attacks have set fire beneath an anti-terrorist Bill that will bring back bannings and detention without trial. It is exactly the kind of weapon Tshwete would love to get his hands on – Mr Fix-It’s tactics tend to favour the use of an ever- bigger hammer.
Tshwete has anointed his cause in the chrism of political correctness by claiming that Pagad’s attacks are due to the state’s support of the rights of homosexuals and the right to abortion. Perhaps he is hoping some left-wingers would be willing to give up a civil right or two if necessary to protect the most progressive Constitution in the world. While Tshwete boasts about the number of Pagad members he has arrested, few if any of these arrests can be tied back to the bombings themselves. Finding members of a vigilante group known for killing gangsters in possession of weapons and explosives is one thing; proving that they have designs on overthrowing the government is another. This is not to say Pagad is blameless in all this. Its violent tactics, including the use of explosives, has left it wide open for this attack and the anarchy it has helped generate has left it vulnerable. Individuals associated with the group may be responsible for some or even most of the bombings. They may be sociopathic fanatics or self-interested criminals or a little of both. Whatever the case may be, the truth is likely to be more complex than the picture painted by the minister.
Ted Leggett is the editor of Crime and Conflict and a research fellow at the school of development studies, University of Natal, Durban