South Africa’s economic decline is the main reason for the president’s fall in popularity, suggests a recent survey
Howard Barrell President Thabo Mbeki’s standing among South Africans has plummeted in recent months, according to the results of a wide-ranging public opinion poll released on Thursday. Only one in two South Africans (50,2%) approves of the job he is doing, according to a survey by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa). In May, nearly 71% of South Africans thought he was performing well or very well and, in June/July, 66% thought the president was discharging his duties satisfactorily, according to polls by Markinor.
Research for the latest Idasa poll, directed by Idasa’s head of public opinion polls, Bob Mattes, was carried out in July/August. Since then, approval of the president’s performance appears to have slipped still further.
A poll by Research Surveys Omnicheck in metropolitan areas in August found that 46% of black women said Mbeki was “doing a good job” – a decline of 10 percentage points from the 56% measured in July, and a fall of 23 percentage points from the 69% measured as recently as February 2000. Among white males, the proportions fell from 24% to 13% over the same period, and among white females from 24% to 11%. From the Idasa survey it is not apparent what the precise reasons are behind the dramatic decline in approval for the president. Although the decline coincided with the row over the government’s confused Aids policy – and with Mbeki’s soft stance on Zimbabwe – the poll does not provide evidence that these factors undermined Mbeki’s standing. What the poll does suggest is that dissatisfaction with the economy is the main reason for the decline. If compared to approval and performance ratings for his predecessor, Nelson Mandela, the decline in public regard for the president is even more precipitate. Mandela’s performance was applauded in May/ June 1995, one year after taking office, by 76% of South Africans. And, in the last public measure of Mandela’s performance, in April last year, just before his retirement, an extraordinary 85% of South Africans thought he was doing well or very well, according to Markinor polls. The key question asked of voters by the Idasa poll was to express their degree of approval or disapproval of the way Mbeki was doing his job. The Markinor polls asked a marginally different question: how well respondents thought the president was handling his job. Political observers say the decline in Mbeki’s standing is clear and real. But some, including Idasa, warn against too much being made of comparisons with Mandela. Richard Calland, head of political programmes at Idasa, said on Thursday: “There is no doubt that this is a wake-up call for Mbeki and his government. The survey as a whole shows a general decline in people’s confidence in representative institutions. It is as if people feel they are not being listened to enough. “But,” adds Calland, “in a sense, this decline is to be expected. Mbeki should be neither surprised nor dismayed by the fact that he no longer enjoys similar levels of approval to Mandela. Mbeki, by his own design, is much more closely associated with his own government. And, as his government has now entered a tough period, it is natural that his own personal approval should decline to a level more typical of heads of government. This is part of the process of normalisation of politics in South Africa.” It is the sharpness of the fall that should worry Mbeki. His approval/ performance ratings have fallen at least 21 percentage points, or by 30%, in under four months. On the other hand, the party he leads, the African National Congress, has experienced no comparable fall-off in support. Some 56% of voters told Idasa researchers they would vote for the ANC if a general election were held tomorrow. But the proportion of people who “identify with” the ANC – a deeper measure of voter loyalty to a party – is now 33%, its lowest since 1994. One pollster remarked that, if Mandela was the “Teflon president”, whose reputation could easily survive absurdities such as his remark once that 13-year-olds should get the vote, Mbeki showed every sign of being the “Velcro president”, a man to whom any mistake tended to stick. The latest Idasa survey also shows that Mbeki commands the trust of fewer people (41,3%) than the independent press (58,4%). This is also true among black South Africans. Just over 60,3% of blacks trust the press, against 47,9% who trust the president.
Mbeki also does not score highly on public perceptions of his responsiveness. Asked how interested people thought the president was in what happened to them or in hearing their opinions, less than half (45,7%) thought he was interested or very interested. More (47,6%) thought he was not very, or not at all, interested. But it is not only the president who scores badly on trust and responsiveness. There are also serious declines in the public’s opinions of institutions such as Parliament, provincial governments and local governments. Only one in three South Africans (33,7%) trusts Parliament, for example, and only one in five (22,6%) trusts his or her local government. These South African ratings of the president and representative institutions are roughly in line with those in other Southern African states. The exception to the pattern is Namibia, where its President, Sam Nujoma, and government institutions are generally held in much higher regard than elsewhere in the region. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe occupies the other end. He is held in high regard by only one in five Zimbabweans.
The Idasa survey indicates that, if one set of issues has damaged Mbeki, it is probably the economy. The government’s poorest ratings come on job creation, an issue on which only 10% think the government is doing “fairly well” or “very well”. Its next poorest score is on inflation. Only 17% believe the government is doing a good job in keeping prices stable. But, on overall management of the economy, 28% of people thought the government was performing well. The government scored poorly, however, on crime. Its attempts to curb lawlessness were approved by only 18% of South Africans. Perhaps surprisingly, some 38% approved of the government’s attempts to prevent the spread of HIV/Aids. The government’s greatest strength with voters was its provision of housing and services. Some 61% of people thought it was doing well or very well on the provision of water and electricity, 50% in the case of housing, 49% on education and 43% in the area of health care.