Iden Wetherell
What has turned out to be the most ill-fated year in Zimbabwe’s history more devastating in its impact than the Great Depression of the 1930s started off on a hopeful note.
A commission appointed by President Robert Mugabe to draw up a new Constitution had heard country-wide evidence of the head of state’s unpopularity and dissatisfaction with his authoritarian system of government. It was confidently expected that the commissioners, despite civil society’s decision not to participate, would produce a blueprint reflecting the need for less executive absolutism.
They did manage to squeeze in a Senate and a handful of checks and balances. But once in Mugabe’s hands the document was manipulated to reflect his ruling Zanu-PF party’s priorities on land acquisition. A clumsy clause making Britain responsible for compensation was inserted along with other interventions.
The country’s opposition grouping, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), together with civic players, mounted a resistance to what they described as a presidential confidence trick. Despite spending Z$2-billion, much of it on advertising, the government lost the referendum held in February to approve the draft. It was the first dent in Zanu-PF’s 20-year political hegemony.
Mugabe appeared on television exuding humility. But within days his shock troops, veterans of the country’s liberation war, were leading farm invasions across the country. Unemployed youths were paid a daily allowance to join in. Directed by intelligence agents from the president’s office and supplied by the army, the invasions quickly assumed a menacing character. By occupying the commercial farms, Mugabe was striking a single blow at two perceived enemies: the white farmers he blamed for blocking his populist land redistribution agenda and the MDC which had received funding from the farmers. But despite widespread abductions of farm workers and beatings of opposition supporters which resulted in 31 deaths, in the June parliamentary election the MDC took 57 seats from Zanu-PF. Previously the opposition had garnered no more than three. Zanu-PF won 62.
The sea change in Zimbabwe’s electoral map revealed the defection of all urban centres, vast swathes of Matabeleland in the west, and parts of Manicaland in the east. In fact Mugabe’s party had been reduced to its Mashonaland and Masvingo roots. Even there it lost seats.
But far from daunted, the outcome confirmed Mugabe’s view that his party was the victim of a foreign conspiracy in which white farmers and the urban youth were collaborators. Invasions continued as investors and donors packed their bags. Tourism all but collapsed.
President Thabo Mbeki’s intervention convinced Mugabe that he had Pretoria’s endorsement for his campaign of violent farm seizures. Agricultural production plummeted. Wheat production is down 30% this year and declining. The European Union has expressed concern about foot-and-mouth disease spreading as land invaders cut fences and allow cattle to roam. The Save Conservancy in the south of the country has become a killing field for species rescued from poaching elsewhere.
The impact on the economy has been devastating. Disposable income is calculated to have fallen by 70% and joblessness is climbing above 60%. Economists see the economy shrinking by 5,5% this year and up to 10% next year. As the government runs out of foreign currency fuel supplies have been reduced to a trickle.
Only Eskom’s goodwill enables Zimbabweans to celebrate Christmas this year with the lights on. And that is not guaranteed in the new year.