The Cats and the Sharks will be playing for a home semifinal in the last round
of the Super 12
Andy Capostagno
Alan Solomons has the right idea. Asked about the complexities of qualification
for the semi- finals of the Super 12 he said, _I don_t get involved. Pieter Rossouw is my mathematician. He goes away, works it all out and hands it to me
at training._ The coach who can be so dispassionate about where and when his
last game in charge of the Stormers will be has made an important peace with
himself and the game.
For the players there are other things to worry about, such as whether they will
be among the 30 invited by Harry Viljoen to a two-week Springbok boot camp in
Plettenberg Bay. But if it is taxing the minds of the fringe players in the Cats
set up then it was not obvious to coach Laurie Mains.
He said on Wednesday: _Not one word has been spoken about Springbok
selection._
At the same media conference Rassie Erasmus underlined his coach_s comments,
saying the Cats are so focused on earning a home semifinal that everything else
has become an irrelevant.
And that is as it should be, for while it is only natural to equate success in
the Super 12 with future success in the Tri-Nations, it is worth remembering
that in 1998, the year the Springboks won the Tri-Nations for the only time,
South African teams held down three out of the last four places in the Super 12
log. Better by far to regard the Super 12 as an end in itself and not a base
camp on the road to somewhere else.
The two matches involving the four South African sides are at opposite ends of
the scale. On Friday night at Ellis Park the Cats will take the field against
the Bulls knowing whether the Hurricanes and the Chiefs are still part of the
semifinal equation. They will know, too, whether winning the log section is still an option, or if the Brumbies have sewn it up by beating the Chiefs in
Canberra.
After a week off, this is a chance for the Cats to flex their muscles. They have
put together a mightily impressive string of results this year, but only once,
against the Highlanders at Ellis Park, have they actually cut loose. If they get
themselves into a position where the game is secure early enough this could be
another demolition derby.
It is likely to be a closer contest in Wellington on Saturday afternoon, when
the Sharks and the Stormers kick off knowing exactly what they have to do. It is the last match of the final round and if all other results have gone their way,
a Stormers win will propel them into the semis. A Sharks win will end that hope
and ensure a semifinal in Durban, probably against the Cats.
The question is whether either the Bulls or the Stormers are good enough to upset the apple cart. The Bulls haven_t beaten the Cats since 1996 and with one
win from 10 matches this season, they should have no chance at Ellis Park. The
Stormers are a somewhat better side, but if they had not been gifted two tries
in Pretoria last week they would have lost to the Bulls.
In addition the Stormers are likely to be without Corne Krige, Bob Skinstad and
Hottie Louw and they are up against a team that has had two weeks off.
It would be easy to trot out the clichs about matches between South African
teams, but the fact is that if the Sharks and the Cats cannot win this weekend
they do not deserve a home semifinal in the first place.
Having said that, and in the knowledge that bookmakers make a living from favourites that lose, perhaps now is the time to applaud the two unions for what
they have achieved to date.
For the Cats it has been a building process that began last year. Consistency of selection over two seasons has led to consistent excellence on the field.
They are not far short of a great side. Give them Stephen Larkham and
George
Gregan and they_d murder everyone in sight, although you could say that of a few
sides, admittedly.
The Sharks have been pulled up by the bootstraps by a coach who once said, _As a number eight with no pace I had to think quickly._
They are unrecognisable from the super-confident units produced by Ian McIntosh,
but contain a handful of players who might one day bear comparison with the likes of Andre Joubert, Dick Muir, Gary Teichmann and Henry Honiball.
So for now let us forget the calculations of Rossouw and his statistically minded brethren and assume that the obvious will occur. The Brumbies will beat
the Chiefs and top the log, the Reds will beat the Waratahs in Sydney and the
Cats and Sharks will both win.
The semifinals will then be in Canberra, where the Brumbies will host the Reds,
and in Durban where the Sharks will play the Cats. That would mean no New Zealand team in the semis for the first time and the guarantee of a South African team in the final for the first time since 1996.
Given what South African rugby has gone through in the past two years, the mere
thought of that is worth celebrating.