MARIAM ISA, Johannesburg | Monday
CRACKS in the alliance between South Africa’s governing ANC party and its labour ally Cosatu have widened alarmingly as unions prepare for a national strike to embarrass the government this week, analysts say.
But most think that the relationship will survive in the near-term, despite the fact that union objections to the government’s conservative economic policies have stretched it near the breaking point.
Cosatu’s 1,8-million members have supported a series of crippling strikes in mining and manufacturing industries during the past few weeks, resulting in pay rises well above inflation and helping to bash the volatile rand to new lows last week.
The federation also plans a two-day strike against privatisation on August 29-30, coinciding with the arrival of delegates to a United Nations conference on racism which is being held in South Africa for the first time.
”It is being deliberately done to embarrass the government – the rhetoric is fiercer than it has ever been,” Wits University Professor of Political Science Tom Lodge said.
”Both sides will play hardball for some time but there’s not much either one can do. They will find some kind of face-saving language and the alliance will survive for the time being.”
The government put out full-page advertisements in Sunday newspapers defending its privatisation policy and criticising the strike, calling it ”unnecessary”.
Unions are alarmed at the prospect of a pickup in the pace of privatisation this year, set to trigger job losses at a time when the unemployment rate is estimated at more than 30%. It has repeatedly accused its partners in the African National Congress of reneging on promises made when ANC leaders were elected in the country’s first democratic elections seven years ago.
President Thabo Mbeki lashed out at the estranged labour allies in a weekly on-line newsletter on Friday, urging them not to tell lies and claim ”easy victories” were possible in the fight against poverty.
The ANC government was pursuing the best policies to raise living standards for millions of blacks who still suffered from the legacy of apartheid, but the process of transformation would take time, he said.
”The question that arises is why lies are being told and false claims made of the possibility of easy victories over the colonial and apartheid legacy. Whose interests do they serve?” Mbeki wrote.
Public Enterprises Minister Jeff Radebbe the Communist insider in charge of privatisation acknowledged on Sunday that the alliance, which includes the South African Communist Party, was under strain.
”It is very clear it is undergoing very serious challenges,” he told state television.
Unions have slammed what they see as a callous pledge to continue with privatisation while wide income disparities between the country’s white minority and black majority persist.
”By continuing with the privatisation the government is opening gates to the chaos and ravages of the market,” the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa said on Sunday.
Analysts say the real battle is not about ideology but about jobs. The government is struggling to boost growth above an annual rate of three percent which is low for an emerging economy and has so far failed to woo investors with its market-friendly policies.
So far the restructuring of unprofitable state assets has been slow but it will accelerate later this year with a partial listing of telecoms operator Telkom.
Vitriolic bickering has led many to believe that the country’s political alliance has served its purpose.
”Today, with the imperatives of development and integration into the global economy, the government cannot be all things to all men. It cannot promote strikes, bash unions and grow an economy at the same time,” the Sunday Business Report said.
”Nothing can be healthier for the economy than an arms-length separation between the ANC and Cosatu.”
Ultimately, the partnership is likely to collapse or at least see the splintering off of left-leaning elements in Cosatu and the ANC, political observers say.
But now, both sides are expected to paper over the cracks, as the ANC owns the national symbols and heroes of the struggle against apartheid while Cosatu commands wide public support.
”Logically the alliance should break and at some point it will,” HSBC Securities political analyst Nic Borain said.
”But the difficulty is that at a sentimental and historical level it has a lot of meaning for people involved in the final 20-30 years of struggle against apartheid — it would not be easy to do now.” – Reuters