/ 26 September 2001

The heat is on, and it’s going to get hotter

Cape Town | Wednesday

GLOBAL warming will cause summer rainfall in some areas of South Africa to decrease by up to 25% over the next 50 to 100 years and kill off dozens of species of plants, a report published on Tuesday warned.

The report, entitled “The heat is on” and funded by the World Wide Fund for Nature, predicts higher temperatures over the whole of South Africa with temperatures in January (the hottest month) expected to increase most in the central interior and least at the coast.

Summer rainfall will decrease by between five percent in the northern regions and 25% in the eastern and southern Cape.

Funded by WWF-SA and produced by Doctors Guy Midgley and Mike Rutherford of the National Botanical Institute and Professor William Bond of the University of Cape Town, the report presents facts that warrant broader exposure and discussion.

‘Ignoring global climate change will not make it go away,’ says Dr Midgley. ‘Mounting evidence demands that we start taking climate change seriously, both individually and collectively.’

Within the next 50 to 100 years the biomes as we currently know them (including fynbos, succulent Karoo, grassland and forest) might well be reduced to between 35 and 55% of their present extent, the doctors said in the report. Climatic conditions in the rest of the country will be unlike anything experienced today, the report said, and within the next 50 to 100 years, succulent plants, grassland and forest might well be reduced to between 35 and 55% of their present extent.

The publication says the effects of climate change on succulent plants in the semi-arid Karoo in the southwest will be devastating and only the hardiest plants will be able to survive.

The effects of climate change on the succulents in the Karoo will be devastating, as only the hardiest plant of that biome will be able to survive. The Great Karoo will become drier and more desert-like, particularly in the west, said the report.

Grasslands will be transformed into savanna as the climate warms up and woody plants will be able to invade grasslands.

The northern arm of the fynbos biome may disappear altogether. Because this biome has many endemic species this will result in numerous extinctions. Fires may become more frequent and extensive in the fynbos and could disrupt many of the close and essential relationships between indigenous plants and animals.

“The timing and extent of global climate change are uncertain, and as a result our actions need to be pragmatic,” Midgley said.

“Plans to conserve South Africa’s rich plant diversity must take account of future climate change scenarios.” – AFP

OFF-SITE LINKS:

UN’s Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change

BBC: Is it all that bad?

BBC: Global warming ‘not clear cut’

WWF’s first South African climate change report

ZA*NOW:

Global warming? Not on Bushs planet March 29, 2001

Moz floods a wake-up call on climate March 9, 2001

Africa bears the brunt of global warming January 24, 2001

FEATURES:

A small step for mankind August 2, 2001

Blind faith in climate change dogma drives Kyoto Protocol July 23, 2001

Make or break in Bonn July 13, 2001

Bush bends to Big Oil April 10, 2001

US plays dirty at climate summit November 24, 2001