At least 5,7-million children in South Africa, roughly a third of those under 18, would have lost one or both parents from Aids by 2015 unless there were major interventions, the Medical Research Council (MRC) warned on Thursday.
Of these, 1,85-million children under 15 would have lost their mothers from Aids.
The MRC advocated treatment and prevention programmes to reduce the potential number of orphans in a policy brief it released.
”Although prevention programmes may not achieve short term reduction in the number of orphans, a significant reduction in the number and trend in number of orphaned children can be achieved through anti-retroviral (ARV) treatment programmes to all HIV-positive individuals,” the authoritative medical body said.
The government said 4,74-million South Africans, one in nine, were HIV positive by the end of last year in figures released on Monday.
South Africa has prevention programmes in place but ARV treatment in the public sector is available only to HIV-positive pregnant women and rape survivors.
The government does not have funds or infrastructure to make ARV treatment available to all those infected by HIV/Aids, it has argued consistently, also raising doubts about the efficacy and toxicity of such treatment in the past.
ARV treatment is available in the private sector but unaffordable to most South Africans.
The MRC said current prevention programmes such as changing sexual behaviour patterns, condom distribution and Aids awareness programmes would reduce the number of orphans in the long term by 10%.
Treatment programmes could extend the lives of a large number of parents to the stage where their children were self-supporting, it said.
The MRC’s findings were drawn from research by the acturial science centre at the University of Cape Town. – Sapa