Dealing with the right-wing threat in the country should include a kind of political solution besides arresting the bomb planters, Martin Schonteich, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, said on Thursday.
”Some of the more reasonable grievances should be addressed to isolate the bomb planters,” he said at an ISS seminar in Pretoria.
However, Schonteich did not provide examples of what regarded as reasonable right-wing grievances.
”To crack an isolated terror cell is possible. To defeat a band of saboteurs who are abetted in their actions by a growing group of sympathisers in the country’s rural hinterland is almost impossible,” he added.
”The former can be done through good police and intelligence work alone. The latter requires a political solution.”
ISS military analyst Henri Boshoff believed the state had the capacity to deal with the right-wing threat, as was demonstrated by how it handled People Against Gangsterism and Drugs (Pagad).
”The message from the SAPS to the public regarding terrorism, including the right-wing, should be: we can deal with it, we can discourage it, but we cannot end it completely.”
The arrest of 18 alleged rightwing coup plotters so far this year would have had a significant impact, Boshoff said.
”Normally if you get so many arrests a group would go
underground until they are sure they have not been infiltrated…”
Small cells of operatives posed the real danger, and the question to be asked was whether they were still under control. The present actions appeared to be unco-ordinated, he said.
”The cells are like loose cannons. They are all on their own mission.”
Whether right-wing violence would escalate over the festive season as predicted by some depended on whether those involved had moral qualms about killing people, Schonteich said.
The bombings had only claimed one life so far, and that did not seem to have been intentional.
”They might have a moral problem with killing people.”
Otherwise it might be part of their strategic thinking — that they planned to target property first and individuals later.
”They might want to open the avenues for an escalation of this kind of violence.”
Schonteich pointed out that three members of the so-called Boere-aanvalstroepe (Boer Attack Troops) set off two bombs in Worcester on Christmas Eve 1997, killing four coloured shoppers and injuring 60.
They were followers of the Israel Identity Sect, as were mass murderers Barend Strydom and Eugene Marais, along with alleged Pretoria bus killer De Wet Kritzinger.
”Radical offshoots of the Israel identity movement in South Africa… believe that they have a divine duty to prevent racial mixing and fight for God’s chosen people.
”Moreover, (they believe) that blacks, being the descendants of Satan, do not possess a soul. This makes the killing of black people morally justifiable.”
ISS military analyst Henri Boshoff said the Boeremag, whose documents were discovered late last year, regarded the African National Congress government and its alliance as the enemy of the Boer nation and of God.
To counter their enemy’s actions, the Boeremag planned to create chaos in the country and eventually stage a coup — including cutting off electricity, taking over military and police aircraft and military bases.
On the capacity of the rightwingers to attain their goals, Boshoff said: ”It is not laughable; it’s virtually impossible.”
A number of preconditions for a coup were absent, he said. These included a high level of political support, mass mobilisation and the support of most soldiers.
The sustainability of the group depended on whether it had people, Boshoff said.
”Getting equipment is not that difficult.” – Sapa