The current tension between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) did not indicate an imminent split, political analysts said on Thursday.
But they believed the rift would take time to heal, if at all. The rift became apparent when President Thabo Mbeki made remarks about the ultra-left at the ANC’s national policy conference over the past weekend, while Cosatu embarked on a two-day anti-privatisation strike earlier this week.
”The genie is out of the bottle with the alliance. I can’t see how they will put it back,” said Xolelwa Mangcu, director of the Steve Biko Foundation.
For as long as the government continued to hold onto its current economic policies, there would be a gap.
”This is likely to be an endless source of tension,” Mangcu said.
On the strike, Mangcu said: ”The strike saw a significant body of people in an organised form who have come out and said openly there were certain things they were not happy about.”
Thabo Rapoo, senior researcher at the Johannesburg-based Institute for Policy Studies, and University of SA political sciences lecturer Dirk Kotze both said the current trend was nothing new.
”This is almost a repeat of what we have seen for the past few years,” said Rapoo.
Kotze said the idea of a leftist group and the possible establishment of a workers’ party started at least as early as 1992, during the multi-party negotiations. It was felt at the time that the ANC did not bargain sufficiently on behalf of the workers.
The deadlock reached in public sector salary negotiations in 1997 presented another big crisis.
ANC national executive committee (NEC) documents written in 1999 and 2001 also caused tension. In 1999, the progressive unions, which Kotze said should be interpreted as Cosatu, were criticised for pursuing their own interests, and not those of the nation.
A document written by Northern Province premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi last year, but which expressed Mbeki’s ideas, criticised people like SA Communist Party general secretary Blade Nzimande, Cosatu president Willie Madisha and the federation’s general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi. They were labelled undemocratic, anti-revolutionary and anti-South African.
This made waves when distributed among different ANC levels. This year’s SACP congress, where people close to Mbeki, like ministers Essop Pahad and Jeff Radebe, were voted out of positions, might have motivated the president’s recent attack on the ultra-left, Kotze said.
He believed Mbeki was trying to prevent leftwingers from being elected to the ANC’s NEC at the party’s national conference in December.
Kotze said one should bear in mind that Cosatu also had a right and leftwing. The rightwing included the National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union (Nehawu) which was closer to Mbeki. The left included the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), as well as Madisha and Vavi.
Rapoo said what was happening now was a normal struggle for dominance in a relationship where the ANC presently had the upper hand. The resolution of the conflict might put Cosatu in a better position, he said.
”I don’t believe it will result in a break-up.”
In the past this type of conflict had always been resolved, even though not always to Cosatu’s complete satisfaction.
”There might be some elements who want a break-up.” This was not the case with the leadership, according to Rapoo.
On the success or failure of the strike, he said: ”You can’t condemn a strike that didn’t achieve anything… If the strike was that unsuccessful, the government would not be that uncomfortable.”
In public, the government had to appear that it was not giving in to Cosatu, he said.
”Behind the scenes there is momentum for engagement. They have to engage with Cosatu.”
The strike did strengthen Cosatu, Rapoo believed.
”Politically it was bad news for the government. It shows Cosatu can stand up to the government and make a point.”
Paul Graham, executive director of the Institute for Democracy in SA (Idasa) said: ”Whenever there are divisions between the various alliance partners it is seized upon as an example of what people may wish should happen.”
But he did not predict any imminent split in the alliance.
”We see at last a real public and private debate about how one should provide for the poor.”
About Mbeki’s remarks on the ultra-left, Graham said: ”When one is facing as many demands as the present government is facing, it is uncomfortable to also have internal organisational debate about the appropriate course of action. Preferably everybody in the alliance should be totally committed to government policy.”
That would never be the case, he said.
”By labelling certain individuals, factions and points of view he is setting up a dynamic that is counterproductive, rather than constructive.”
But, Mbeki could also be getting impatient. That was understandable, given the fact that the next election was only 18 months away and that there was mounting pressure for good service delivery.
”It is hard to tell whether it was just a speech or an effort to force people to take sides,” Graham said. – Sapa