The number of South Africans carrying the HIV virus that causes Aids appeared to be stabilising, Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang said on Monday.
By the end of last year, some 4,74 million people had been infected, compared to 4,7 million by 2000, she told reporters in Pretoria.
A survey of 16 743 pregnant women who attended public ante-natal clinics last year revealed that the epidemic’s growth rate may be slowing down.
Last year, 24,8% of these women tested HIV- positive, compared to 24,5% in 2000.
”Although we see a slight increase, statistically this increase is not significant,” the minister said.
”We can confidently say that the prevalence rate (among pregnant women) has stabilised.”
While these findings were encouraging, it did not mean South Africa could rest on its laurels.
”The battle is far from over, and indications are that we should intensify our efforts,” Tshabalala-Msimang said.
She was releasing the country’s 12th National HIV and Syphilis Sero-Prevalence Survey. The survey results are used annually to estimate the total number of South Africans who have contracted the virus.
It is not a reliable indicator of the rate of new infections.
The latest report states that South Africa could no longer be described as having one of the fastest growing Aids epidemics in the world.
Particularly encouraging, the minister said, was a decrease in the prevalence rate among teenagers.
Of women younger than 20 who attended ante-natal clinics last year, 15,4% were HIV-positive compared to 16,1% in 2000 and 16,5% in 1999.
”We can attribute this positive outcome to the hard work that has been put into prevention campaigns aimed at encouraging safe sexual behaviour among the youth,” the minister said.
”These findings underscore the correctness of our prevention-centred and youth-focused response to the spread of HIV.”
HIV trends in teenagers were considered a good indicator of behavioural change to reduce infection, the report states.
However, the prevalence of the virus among older women was on the rise. In the 25 to 29 age group, 31,4% of pregnant women tested positive for HIV last year compared to 30,6% in 2000.
The figure for women between 30 and 34 was 25,6% last year and 23,3% in 2000, while that for women between the ages of 35 and 39 was 19,3% last year, up from 15,8% in 2000.
The rate among women between the ages of 45 and 49 rose from 13,1% in 2000 to 17,8% in 2001, but this figure should be treated with caution as the sample group was very small, the report says.
The survey found that HIV prevalence had decreased in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and the Western Cape, but increased in all other provinces to varying degrees.
The biggest drop was in KwaZulu-Natal, which still has the highest rate, and the biggest rise in the Northern Cape.
The Western Cape still had the lowest prevalence rate at 8,6%, and it appeared to be stabilising.
The survey also revealed that the number of women infected with syphilis was at its lowest level ever at 2,8% last year, compared to 4,9% in 2000, 7,3% in 1999, 10,8% in 1998 and 11,2% in 1997.
Syphilis was an indicator of susceptibility to HIV and of possible high-risk sexual behaviour. The report warns that HIV/Aids remains a significant health problem for the country, and the number of people being infected every day was still high.
”These high prevalence rates have significant implications on the future burden of HIV-associated disease and the ability of the health system to cope with provision of adequate care and support facilities,” the document states.
Recent estimates suggested that HIV/Aids could reduce Gross Domestic Product growth rates by an average of between 0,3% and 0,4% per annum over the next 15 years, Tshabalala-Msimang told a news conference in Johannesburg earlier in the day.
”The impact on human and social development is expected to be much more profound than reflected in limited indicators such as GDP or per capita GDP.
”Increased illness and death, and reduced life expectancy will clearly compromise developmental objectives.
”Affected people, especially orphans, will also have greatly reduced chances of fulfilling their human potential,” she said. – Sapa