A peace pact between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda is seen as a diplomatic victory for South Africa, but Pretoria’s proposed military role poses huge logistical problems, analysts said on Wednesday.
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame signed the historic deal, brokered by South African Deputy President Jacob Zuma, in Pretoria on Tuesday.
It is aimed at ending four years of warfare in the DRC that have claimed the lives of 2,5-million people.
Zimbabwe said it would withdraw thousands of troops from peace-keeping duties in the war-torn DR Congo following the landmark pact and a UN officials said that some 100 000 Rwandan fighters in the DRC were ready to give themselves up to the UN mission following the peace accord.
Between 8 000 and 10 000 Zimbabwean troops are still on duty in the DRC, a situation which Foreign Minister Stan Mudenge said would be relieved if the United Nations played a more active role in peacekeeping.
Hamadoun Toure, a representative for the UN mission Monuc, told journalists in the DRC capital Kinshasa that ”100 000 combatants with Rwandan armed groups in Northern Kivu are ready to give themselves up to the UN mission in Congo in order to seek political asylum.”
The official said he was quoting the village headman at Kanyabayonga in northern Kivu.
But he said Monuc was endeavouring to check the report independently on the spot.
With the signing, the United Nations has asked South Africa to send 1 500 troops to the DRC to help Monuc there implement the pact, which provides for the rounding up, disarming and repatriation of tens of thousands of Rwandan Hutu rebels.
South Africa has 200 troops in the DRC in the Monuc force.
Analysts warned on Wednesday that South Africa’s defence force, currently about 70 000 strong, may not have the capacity to send a full battalion to back the deal.
”South Africa should realise that it has to engage militarily some time or later to back its diplomatic breakthroughs,” said Mark Malan, an analyst at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
”And we have a limited capacity to do so.”
Defence ministry representative Sam Mkhwanazi, however, said that South African troops were ready to be deployed to the DRC at any time.
”We already have troops on the ground there. We will be ready,” he said.
The army has recently announced its withdrawal from combined operations with the police on South Africa’s borders.
Recent reports in the local media said the armed forces had only four tanks and eight armoured cars operational, and that the HIV infection rate in the military was as high as 60%.
Reports also said the defence force’s salary and acquisition bills had left too little money in its budget to deploy troops. The HIV claim was vehemently denied by Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota, who called it ”ridiculous and dangerous”, and said the real rate was ”not higher than 23% ”.
The defence force ”is perfectly placed to fulfil its obligations,” he said, adding that the military’s short term strategy required only 30 tanks and about 18 armoured cars in the regular force.
The remainder, out of a total of 168 tanks and 242 armoured cars, were in store and were meant for issue to reserve units on their mobilisation, he said.
Henri Boshoff, another analyst at the ISS, said the armed forces would not be ready in time to help enforce the DRC peace plan.
”The proposed 90-day period in which to track down, disarm and dismantle the Rwandan rebel forces within the DRC is impractical, so is the 120-day period of final verification,” he told AFP.
”It would take that period of time just to put the required numbers of troops and material on the ground,” Boshoff said.
”Monuc, with 3 472 men, is currently 1 500 men short for the tasks it already has; implementing the agreement would take at least 2 500 men more than its current strength.
”There has to be a force big enough to act as a deterrent and to encourage the voluntary disarmament of the belligerents.”
Boshoff said money to fund the operation was another matter of concern.
South Africa has also deployed 700 troops in Burundi to guard returning politicians as part of the South African-brokered peace process there.
That deployment is estimated to cost South Africa more than one million dollars (euros) a month.
”Even if the country would be remunerated by the UN, it still will cost a lot of money in terms of preparations before being able to be sent there (to the DRC). This includes training,” Boshoff said. – Sapa-AFP