South Africa posted another robust trade surplus of R3,84-billion in April, official data showed on Friday, narrower than the previous month but still enough to bolster the rand’s recovery.
After a R5,56-billion surplus in March, economists said the notoriously volatile data also supported hopes that South Africa’s current account would move back into the black in 2002 — which would be the first time in seven years.
”I think that (the data) suggests the current account and the balance of payments should be in a positive area and that should support the recent strength of the rand,” Nedcor economist Magan Mistry said.
The current account measures the balance of payments and receipts on services like tourism and banking as well as traded goods. South African markets shrugged off news of the surplus, in line with forecasts of a balance of R3,6-billion.
Economists noted that the data would do little to deter the central bank from raising interest rates for the third time this year at its June 12-13 monetary policy meeting, to quell inflation fanned by the rand’s steep slump last year.
The currency has since staged a dramatic recovery, gaining more than 22% against the dollar so far in 2002 on the back of the US unit’s weakness, surging prices for gold and other commodities, and more positive sentiment for South Africa.
”Although the surplus is down on the March figure, it is still a robust number,” said Barnard Jacobs Mellet economist Bruce Donald.
”Trade volumes on both sides of the account are adjusting to a more competitive exchange rate and we expect exports to accelerate over the remainder of the year as the global economy recovers and commodity prices push higher,” he added.
The South African Revenue Service said the cumulative surplus for the first four months of the year was R14,34-billion, versus R14,1-billion in the same period a year ago.
During the period, exports rose 30% while imports climbed by 36%. Between March and April, exports edged up by 0,8% while imports increased by 8,9%. – Reuters