SOUTH African Communist Party chairperson Charles Nqakula, Minister of Defence Mosiuoa Lekota and Limpopo Premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi are the front-runners among those being touted as contenders for the safety and security portfolio.
But the name of the head of the portfolio that fell vacant with Steve Tshwete’s death last week could still be a surprise, as President Thabo Mbeki typically does not discuss Cabinet candidates in the government or the African National Congress. Party sources said ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe was the only other individual Mbeki might have consulted.
Party insiders feel Tshwete’s successor will have to be announced soon, as the safety and security portfolio, with finance and defence, is the most critical in South Africa.
Adding to the urgency is the fact that Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development Penuell Maduna, who has been acting minister in Tshwete’s place, has been juggling two exhausting portfolios for more than a month. ”It is too much work for one person,” remarked a senior ANC member.
Maduna, whose name is also being bandied about in the press as Tshwete’s possible successor, is unlikely to be moved, feel party insiders.
The reshuffle, if any takes place, is expected to be a minor one. Party sources shot down reports of a major rejig, pointing out that the ANC was only seven months from its internal elections for office-bearers: ”It is unlikely that feathers will be ruffled.”
Nqakula (60), the oldest of the three contenders and currently the Deputy Minister of Home Affairs, has a security and military background.
He served as one of the commanders of Operation Vulindlela after undergoing military training in Angola, the former Soviet Union and East Germany in the 1980s. Having served previously as Mbeki’s parliamentary counsellor, Nqakula is believed to enjoy the president’s confidence. Party sources feel that while it would be hard for Mbeki to find a replacement for Tshwete in the political sense, Nqakula could be the closest he could find.
Among the members of Mbeki’s inner circle, Tshwete was seen as the most loyal and popular and perhaps the only one with organisational skills, said a senior party source. A close ally of Tshwete’s remarked despairingly: ”What is the chief [Mbeki] going to do without Steve in this election year?”
A reserved and intelligent man, Nqakula could also bring a certain poise to the portfolio lacking during Tshwete’s tenure.
Nqakula’s wife, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, was recently appointed ANC chief whip in Parliament. The Nqakulas are seen as close Mbeki allies.
If Nqakula is appointed, Ramatlhodi could fill his vacant post in home affairs. Ramatlhodi, whose term as premier is drawing to a close, has been waiting in the wings for an opening in the national political scene.
Senior party sources say Lekota (54) would be a very serious candidate for the police ministry job.
Besides having the political clout, ANC national chairperson Lekota enjoys the same ”tough guy” image that Tshwete did both in party and police circles.
Like Tshwete, Lekota can also effectively reach out to the ordinary soldier or policeman across racial lines. He serves in the security cluster and is therefore aware of the challenges.
Party sources also believe that Lekota’s appointment would cause less disruption, as the cluster system is finally beginning to work.
On the other hand, other party sources feel finding a replacement for Lekota in the defence portfolio could be problematic. Lekota is currently handling complex deals relating to the defence procurement package and the management of the South African forces deployed in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Like Nqakula, Ramatlhodi (47) hails from the ANC’s military wing, Umkhonto weSizwe. He received his military training in Angola and the former Soviet Union.
Disappointed at not being included in the Cabinet reshuffle in January last year, he has been working hard to make himself indispensable to Mbeki’s inner clique.
However, some feel he lacks the administrative skills to be effective as a minister.
Finding a replacement for him in Limpopo, where the party structures have been ravaged by infighting and ethnic clashes, could be difficult. Ramatlhodi has only recently begun to get a grip on the province after the dissolution of party structures in Limpopo last year.
Both the ANC and the New National Party sources are cautious about the possibility that the Cabinet vacancy may be used to accommodate the NNP, in terms of the party’s co-operation pact with the ANC.
A senior NNP source said discussions with the ANC and the NNP were proceeding ”on another level”.