/ 1 January 2002

Zimbabwe casts cloud over South Africa

Developments in Zimbabwe are having an adverse effect on South Africa and causing it considerable problems, a government-business forum agreed this weekend.

South Africa’s economic growth should exceed world average next year despite the effect of the ongoing Zimbabwean crisis, a three-day meeting of the International Investment Council (IIC) concluded. But Trade and Industry Minister Alec Erwin told a closing news conference Zimbabwe had featured strongly in the deliberations.

”There was common ground that the developments in Zimbabwe have an adverse effect on South Africa and create considerable problems for South Africa,” he conceded.

The session brought together key South African ministries and international business leaders at a lodge 50km north of Durban. President Thabo Mbeki, Deputy President Jacob Zuma and Foreign Minister Nkosazana Zuma were among those present. Zuma briefed the meeting on her two-day visit to Zimbabwe last week.

President Mbeki said: ”The central issue is that we have agreed with the government of Zimbabwe to engage with them on all matters … whether it be land, legislation, general politics, the economy or food shortages, and to find an urgent solution to all of these problems.”

President Mbeki said in an interview earlier this month that Pretoria would not dictate policy to Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, nor would it be ”dragooned” into overthrowing his government.

The South African government has been criticised for its refusal to criticise Mugabe’s controversial land reforms and lawlessness in Zimbabwe that has claimed the lives of a dozen white farmers and displaced tens of thousands of people.

Another IIC member, Niall Fitzgerald, chairman of the Unilever group, described Zimbabwe’s situation as ”a dark cloud hanging over South Africa.”

He said he had held extensive private discussions with President Mbeki on the issue.

”We agreed that the more that is done quietly, but urgently, the more effective it is likely to be. You won’t persuade your neighbour by shouting over the fence,” he remarked. Trade and Industry Minister Erwin said the ICC session had sounded a positive note on the South African economy.

”Participants agreed that South Africa’s growth may exceed the world average in the coming year, and that South Africa should strive for even higher levels of growth,” he said. The projection of a growth rate of about three percent for South Africa compared to a world average of some two percent was based on his government’s assessment of the world economy, recently prepared for the budgetary process, the minister said.

IIC delegates had confirmed the government’s view that current international economic conditions increased opportunities for South Africa.

”We need to upgrade our manufacturing and IT capabilities so that when the global economy slows down, investors may look to South Africa,” Erwin said.

In September, Australian Prime Minister John Howard called for Zimbabwe to be fully suspended from the Commonwealth because of alleged human rights and democratic abuses. However, he was overruled by Mbeki and Nigeria’s President Olusegun Obasanjo, who said Mugabe should be given a further six months to show he is willing to restore democracy.

”You can see that there is a particular agenda that drives that particular perception about Zimbabwe. The notion that South Africa can dictate policy to Zimbabwe … people must abandon that.”

”What (US) President (George) Bush calls regime change is not going to happen,” Mbeki said. ”The particular focus on Zimbabwe … suggests that particular agendas are being pursued here. And we are being dragooned to play: to come and fulfill and implement other people’s agendas.”

The South African leader said the only solution to Zimbabwe’s problems was continued engagement with all parties concerned. The regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) decided last week, at Mugabe’s invitation, to send its Ministerial Task Force on Zimbabwe back to the country to review developments, particularly the land redistribution program.

Aid agencies warn that the two-year-old scheme aimed at redressing colonial imbalances, which has resettled some 300 000 black families and aims to resettle many more, will aggravate a famine that threatens over half the country’s 12-million people, because the new landowners are not trained commercial farmers. The programme has also been blamed in part for recent fluctuations in the value of the South African rand. – Sapa-AFP