/ 12 February 2002

Ratings agency tackles Fitch

LEON ENGELBRECHT, Johannesburg | Tuesday

RATINGS agency Fitch Ratings came under renewed criticism on Monday when rival Global Credit Rating Company (GCR) questioned its wisdom in placing six smaller South African banks on negative rating watch, following the downgrading of Saambou.

GCR director of bank ratings Grant Kelly said the impact of the move was potentially very damaging and unnecessarily exacerbated the liquidity pressure on the smaller ”A2” and ”A3” banks.

Kelly in a statement said the negative rating watch was further surprising in that Fitch made the move unilaterally and without giving each bank prior opportunity to respond to the rating decision.

”GCR points out that the funding and balance sheet structures of the six banks in question differ significantly amongst one another and accordingly each bank must be evaluated on a case by case basis, the statement said.

”Whilst the decision by Fitch (Ratings) to place its A2 banks on rating watch has subsequently been retracted it must be recognised that damage has already been done.”

Kelly said that the rating agencies had to be very sensitive to the potential implications of their public announcements, particularly in view of the extent to which bank ratings were used by investors, private individuals, other banks, corporates, institutions and funds in the decision making process with regards to the placing of deposits.

”Moreover, in terms of certain investment criteria, many investors are obliged to withdraw deposits from banking institutions in the event that the rating falls below a certain level. As such, the accordance of a speculative grade rating essentially becomes a self fulfilling prophecy in the event of a downgrade into the speculative grade band,” Kelly said in his statement.

”In light of this, it is GCR’s stated policy not to accord speculative grade ratings if the concerns facing a particular bank revolve solely around liquidity issues, rather than solvency.”

In the case of Saambou, GCR senior banking analyst, Pedja Kovacevic, stated that a R1-billion run would have a significant impact on the funding of any bank operating in the local market, and would see most medium-sized banks being unable to meet short-term depositor obligations.

The Reserve Bank remained adamant that Saambou was solvent, and that the issues facing the bank related to liquidity, rather than asset quality and solvency.

Moreover, in light of the recent number of failures of small and mid-capitalisation banks, the most recent being the problems experienced at the country’s other major micro-lending institution, Unibank, the investor market remains highly sensitive to ratings movements in this segment of the market.

”As such, the rating agencies have to tread a very fine line between reporting a problem and precipitating it,” Kelly concluded.

Fitch Ratings placed the six banks on ratings watch on Friday night.

It downgraded its rating on Saambou and its parent Saambou Holdings at the same time.

The rating agency met the six banks on Sunday after the intervention of the Registrar of Banks Christo Wiese.

It withdrew the negative rating watch on Sunday night once satisfied the banks were all solvent and liquid.

Wiese also promised to support the banking system’s liquidity through the Reserve Bank.

GCR downgraded Saambou on Thursday night during the height of a run on its deposits. – Sapa